Trades - 23/04/2015

11:41 (GMT+1)

Position was closed by the SL. The market still moves in a downward channel, but so far the lower line provided support. If this is gonna continue then   the "immediate" bullish scenario I drew up a couple of days ago will be ruled out. It's a wait and see situation for me, because if the market will go below this week's low then at least 11500 should be reached and have to rethink the wave count (and may be the wave degree too.).

11:41 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11765.

11:24 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11740.


10:55 (GMT+1)

I'm back in front of my computer again. I didn't expect this deep retrace (if it will stay a retrace). I opened a long on a 5 minutes setup (base channel break out attempt). I think the index is gathering some strength. The hourly momentum is still on the edge of bullish support zone. We'll see how this is gonna work out.

DAX: m5 - m15 - 1 hour charts

9:17
Sl Closed position

9:10
Scaled out 1/3 át 11927.

9:01
Opened 3 long (cfd). Ep 11874, Sl 11860

DAX context and trades - 22/04/2015

20:27
Closed long at 11910.

18:57
Break even.

18:32 (GMT+1)
Last trade today.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

17:37 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. I got too agressive. The entry was too early. Now I wait and see.

17:32 (GMT+1)
Another long opened.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

17:08 (GMT+1)
Closed position at 11891.

16:45 (GMT+1)
Opened a long.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

15:48 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Broke even.


15:02 (GMT+1)
The market moved 2R. Scaled out 1/3 at 11932.

14:58 (GMT+1)
Break even.

14:42 (GMT+1)
I hit a 15 minutes long signal.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

12:02 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out.

11:35 (GMT+1)
I opened 3 long (CFD). I expect at least a backtest today's high or even a little higher for today.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

The market filled the gap (see 4 hours chart). The momentum is forming a bullish cross on this time frame, but it needs to get confirmed by the MA10/20 to be valid. The RSI on the daily time frame might found support, and the weekly chart suggests that this market needs at least one more diverging high that would probable make the end of 3 of (3) on the monthly chart.

DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts

DAX - 20/04/2015

Unfortunately I'm down with illness. I'm not gonna trade until I'm 100% healthy again. I just can't focus. I'm only posting a picture of what I think is the most probable scenario in my reading. The first crucial sign would be breaking out of the Elliott channel drawn on the 1 hour chart. We'll see...

DAX: h1 - daily - weekly charts

DAX context and trades - 17/04/2015

Higher Time Frames:
Today's sell-off is still going on. So I decided to take a look at higher time frames. The weekly chart shows a nice Elliott channel and the price action hit the lower line. The momentum on the daily charts and above is still bullish, but the bears still have room especially considering this expanded flat correction pattern. Keep attention for signs of climax on the 4 hours chart and the unorthodox - often used today in Hungary :) - elliott channel (2 to 4 parallel to 1 to 3).

So the market once again reached and ideal level in many ways (correction channel, Fibonacci expansions and minimum Fibonacci retracement level), but this doesn't mean that the price action will stop right here. It is just an ideal place for it, we'll have to see and wait for reversal signals to trade swing long.

DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts

14:42 (GMT+1)

I was really off with my last trade and  it got stopped out. Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch this nice drop. Too bad because I was really expecting at least a wave [v] of C. 

The intensity of this drop suggests that at least a flat C wave is going on. The sharp downside movement makes it difficult to determine the current wave degree. In my opinion the most likely scenario is that the extension of wave [iii] went on and almost reached 423,6 Fibonacchi ratio. The max level for a flat C on the daily chart is around 11400. The MA10 line on the weekly chart is getting really near, not to mention the 38.2 Fibonacchi retracement level. Above the aforementioned level I still expect at least one more backtest of the ATH, but for me this is neither the time and place for opening a short, nor trying to catch an end of flat C. Especially after reading the smaller degree wrong. My confidence in my trading decisions needs to be restored.

10:38 (GMT+1)
I opened 2 longs. I'm anticipating higher price as part of a correction. This is a little shaky though, because I'm not so sure that wave (b) is done. We'll see...

DAX: m15 - h1 - daily charts

This downside movement could be the end of a wave [iii]. This impulse wave is not a basic one, because the 3rd wave got extended. Thus the optimal level for a wave [iv] and the bottom line of the base channel got lower. The ideal retrace level for a wave [iv] right now is between 12000 and 12050, but due to the rule of alternation this correction is more likely to be a complex one (comparing to wave [ii]: flat, triangle or a combination pattern. So far there is no sign of reversal and because today is Friday I'm only planning to make quick scalps if I'll have the chance.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

Trades - 16/04/2015

17:48 (GMT+1)
Unfortunately the reenter. I had a short position that got stop out. My tp was 11960.. My rhythm was off today  I'm not gonna make more trades today. Instead I'll update the context.

12:29 (GMT+1)
Closed my shorts at 12050. I'm gonna reenter if the market retest the base channel (h1-h4).

12:00 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Looks like the short side will prevail. Opened 2 shorts. Target zone: gap fill.

DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts

11:21 (GMT+1)
I bought 2 long. I'm planning to trade a ranging market and a test of the higher channel shown on the 1 hour chart. I put a trailing stop on the position.

DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts

DAX context -16/04/2015

Update: 17:52 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level. The gap is filled, base channel of this downside movement is broken and 161.8 Fibonnachi level is right around here. So if the market will produce an ideal basic impulse pattern then this level should provide temporary support. On the 4 hours chart the momentum is in a sustainable bearish zone, while the 1 hour is getting near to a point where signs of climax could appear. The 15 minutes chart shows a small divergence, but it's not enough yet for indicating a start of a wave [iv]. If the market finds support then ideally a retracement to the 38.2 Fibonacci level should be the end of wave [iv] which is right now located around the 12100s level. We'll see how the rest of the trading day will go on and hopefully tomorrow directions of the smaller time frames will be pretty much clear.

DAX: m15-h4-d1 charts

The market reached 2 of 3 goals I've expected. First the neckline, then the bigger channel. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel (shown on h4-d1 charts). If this channel breaks then most likely the market will go deeper then a gap fill and an intermediate triagnle or flat C wave could unfold from this situation. The momentum crosses of 4 hours and daily RSI are displaying different possible setups, so confirmation is needed before pulling a trigger in either way.

DAX: h1-h4-daily charts

DAX context - 14/04/2015

Yesterday was really busy for me and I just couldn't follow the market. Today will be pretty much the same for me, so I just update the context and what I think is important to look out.

DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts

The market reached the level I've expected yesterday, but not in the way as I thought it would. The momentum of the 1 hour chart has created a bearish hook and the setup was triggered and the minimum target is already reached. 

The channels shown on the 4 hours and daily charts should provide support. The daily chart is about to create a bullish cross on the RSI, but it is not valid yet. The rally stopped at an ideal level in many ways so patience is really the best thing to have regarding long term expectation. This is still an open question because the market is between different scenarios at the moment. There is no confirmation  yet for an intra-day or swing trade in either way. If the acceleration channel will break then I think the DAX will go for at least a test of the neckline, but more likely test of the bigger parallel channel and even possibly a gap fill.