Dax 14/09/2015

Update: 11:32
 Looking for higher prices against in a potential 1-2-i-ii situation. If break out will occur I will use trailing stop instead of the a TP. This could be very a juicy upside movement if the pattern will be confirmed by the PA.

DAX (CFD) - 15 minutes chart showing potential 1-2-i-ii situation.

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I think that the index is bullish above 10080. I post a picture of the context I made during the weekend. Full update in English will be posted later on.

DAX (CFD) 

The 10080 level hold and a higher low was created. Higher time frames are still bullish in my reading, except the momentum of the daily and the 4 hours (they are at the bearish resistance at the moment), but the momentum on the 4 hours chart has produced a converging H/H-H/L series. I still can't rule out that this is gonna be an even more complex flat, but as I mentioned in my previous posts this price action can be labeled as a complete LD+flat pattern. In this case the price must stay above the red line shown on the 1 hour chart and needs to close above the range soon. If the red line will fail to hold the price then I will start to think the market needs at least a bigger correction, at least a more complex flat where the wave [c] will be an ending diagonal. These are just some thoughts. The market has shown no conformation in either way so far.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart

DAX (CFD) - 4 hour chart

DAX - 10/09/2015

I nice impulse is most likely completed from yesterday's high. The gap was closed, so the alternate option of a complex flat for wave [b] or [ii] is alive. The structure can be labeled as a complete running flat pattern, but the market can still do some more tricks. My idea for today is to hit an ideal retrace level of the preceding drop. There is a bullish slingshot opportunity on the 5 minutes chart, which is not triggered yet, but even if it get triggered most likely it won't be strong enough to push the price to target zone even. So I wait for a pull back and then a reversal signal for a long trade especially above the red line shown on the 5 minutes chart. If the market will go below today's low then I will look for a short setup with the target zone of 10k or below. (Since I started to write the post the market excluded the bullish slingshot setup)

DAX (CFD) - 1 minute, 5 minutes and 15 minutes charts

DAX (CFD) - context of the drop and primary target zone for today

So this would be my short scenario. If the market goes below the red line then most likely a can anticipate a wave (c) of [b]/[ii] and a test of the lower area of the range.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart with complex flat option

I have to notice that the momentums on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts are getting interesting. We can a series of higher highs and higher lows converging with the RSI, which opens up a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) interpretation. This is just a thought in the back of my mind...

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour and 4 hours chart with [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) option

DAX context - 09/09/2015

This August has brought very volatile market conditions. The sell off didn't surprise me as you can see in my previous post, I couldn't rule out a bigger drop (dax ld+flat). This flat can be drawn a little more complex, but I think it doesn't really matter. At that time the market was in an absolute 50-50 situation in my reading. After this the market first moved upward but failed to pierce through the critical level needed to trigger the continuation of an immediate long trend. 

I decided to update the context because the drop so far doesn't look like an impulse wave. I can't exclude a 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation though, but right now this drop looks corrective.

If you take a look at the monthly chart, you can see the drop stopped at multiple support zones. The 38.2 Fibonacci level, the upper line of the base channel and the previous wave (IV) zone was right there. We saw the first break below the trend line created by the RSI and the momentum came down to the bullish support zone. This movement is pretty much equal in points and time with the possible wave II (see boxes). So if the market wants another high or test of the high this is the place for it. Just a thought on what if the market takes out the low (and especially if it closes below that level on weekly of monthly chart). then I think a trend reversal is most likely and at least a bigger correction should develop with the target level of 8500 as the end of wave 3 of (A).

DAX (CFD) monthly chart

The weekly chart shows that this downside movement didn't reach the ideal Fibonacci extension level for a wave 3, thus suggesting that this is going to be either an A-B-C, or 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation. The only problem with this interpretation is the corrective channel, which was broken. In this case always have to watch out for a channel test.  This is just a warning sign so far that should make you think other possibilities as well. But I think this happens quite often after a leading diagonal followed by a flat correction. (Another thing to consider is that the monthly candle didn't close outside of the channel and a monthly line chart also didn't confirm a break of the channel yet.)

DAX (CFD) weekly chart

Since the local low the market created a range, which was pierced upward by today's opening. This tells me that at least a wave (c) of [ii] can be expected, but can't rule out even higher prices though, especially if today the market will create a runaway gap on the daily chart. The momentum on the daily charts shows signs of climax at low. If the gap will stay open, the market should reach at least the 9700 level this week, but in this case the market should ideally test the 11k as a significant Fibonacci and psychological level.

DAX (CFD) daily chart

I show you an alternate version on the 4 hours chart. Yesterday the market was at the top of the range. I could count a full flat correction, but the upside movement didn't yet confirm that. Although today the market tries to break out of the range this bull trap is still an option. The rest of the week will decide that I can rule this out or not. Today's price action will be crucial, because a runaway gap would a nice reference point for the bulls.

DAX (CFD)  4 hours chart

I also want show you a 5 minutes chart from yesterday. This is what I wanted to play out from the context of the 4 hours chart. I expected a pullback and a zig zag pattern to unfold to the zone shown on the chart after a possible leading diagonal. I wanted to shot the upward wave after a higher low, but I missed the entry, but Today's opening ruled out the LD shown on this chart, and the whole complex flat idea is questioned as well.

DAX (CFD) 5 minutes chart

Dax - 04/08/2015

Update: 14:00
I got stopped out at 11421.

Update: 13:05
I had a couple of tries on both way. First I tried to play a break out attempt. I realized 1,5R. but it looked like it is going to fail So I jumped to the short side.

I had a short from 11446. Tp at 11408,5. https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769756/dax30-pro-m5-admiral-markets-as The market reached my tp, but i got stopped out at 11424,5.

So I decided to  reenter on the short side again. I think lower prices might be ahead of us based on the 15 minutes chart.

Dax (CFD) 15 minutes chart

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This July was pretty hectic for me. I wasn't able to focus on trading.
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The dax is in an interesting situation. The higer time-frames are pretty much 50-50 right now. In my primary wave count I think a DZZ was completed and right now the index is testing the corrective channel. The preceding drop looks corrective, a sharp ZZ, right to higher channel line. My alternate count suggest at least a test of the lower channel line. This alternate version shows an ideal pattern for the price action. In this scenario, if the price action will pierce and test successfully the lower corrective channel line, I think a wave 3 will be on its way and we'll see more downside movement.

Either way this is gonna play out, based on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts, I think at least the 61.8 Fibonacchi level of the preceding drop is reachable.

I have a long position in DAX CFD opened at 11421. Sl is at break even. Trailing stop is on.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769190/dax30-pro-m15-admiral-markets-as

Dax primary wave count on 4 hours chart

Dax alternate wave count on 4 hours chart

Trades - 01/07/2015

11:26

Reentered for a quick long scalp. RSI on m1-m5-m15 suggested at least on marginal high (at least a wave B). 2R in the pocket. Closed at 11220. We'll see how the rest of the day will play out, now I'm gonna sit on my hands and wait out. The price action looks like it's on a break out attempt, but this needs further confirmation.

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m1 charts

11:16
SL closed my position at 11145.

11:09
I have a long postion. Context will be updated later today. Trailing stop loss order is on

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m5 charts

DAX - 05/19/2015

The index is on a break out attempt, but so far the upper line of the smaller channel is still a resistance. The momentum on the daily chart created a bullish cross which still needs to be confirmed by MA10/20 cross, but the downward channel is broken and today's gap could easily be a runaway gap. Even if this is part of a correction the 11900s level should be tested as 61.8 fibonacchi level is laying right around there. 11 o'clock (CET) ZEW data should determine the next move.

DAX daily chart - channels at crossroads.

DAX Context - 04/05/2015

I'm gonna go for a vacation this week. From next week I'm gonna start studying for my exams, so I'm not gonna follow the market during the day (thus I'm not gonna trade until I'm done). I'll try to update my context every once in a while though.

I think the market is likely bottomed and reached the end of a wave (4). The price action is likely making legs for an attack of the ATH again. This wave count is especially valid above the last week's low. The market reached and ideal level in fibonacchi extension (wave A and wave C)) wise and also hit the ideal fibonnachi retracement level on higher time frame (38.2). Primary targets are marked on the 4 hours chart with red lines.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts