DAX - 09/08/2016

Update (17:46 GMT+2):

I missed the long entry for a small degree wave c as part of what I think it will be only a pull back. The first important support zone was pierced and now the market retest this level.The bull so far pulled the price back to the Fib. retracement level of 61.8 of today's range.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

The pull back was contained by a parallel channel. The price moved out of this channel suggesting that this correction may be over and the downside movemenet will contiune. The RSI on the 15 minutes and 1 hour chart reached the sustainable bear zone and pulled back to bearish support zone.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

DAX - 09/07/2016

Update:
Short was stopped out. Looking for new setup either way.

The support level is still holding the price above. If this level breaks I think it is very likely that the market will drop to  around 10500 where the next support zone is. This pattern looks complex and didn't confirm my short idea yet. The only thing why I didn't close my position is that the momentum turned down two times from a level where a drop can be anticipated.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

The 15 minutes chart may show some sings for a downside movement because the momentum turned down from bearish resistance and spiked in to the bullish support zone while the price action tested yesterday's minimum. Then the pullback failed to reach the neutral/bullish territory. A good confirmation of my short idea would be that the market won't go back above 10712 and impulsively breaks the support level then retest this level. The break of this support level is do or die for the bears. We'll see.
 

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

DAX - 09/06/2016

As I mentioned in my earlier post I think the DAX is in a range based on the 4 hours and the daily charts. The level of preceding wave 4 of the impulse wave is pierced and if the break of this support level gets confirmed, the market will likely test the lower part of the range.

I opened a short position with a sell stop order put on the above mentioned level (10670) which is also the level of yesterday's low. SL is put at the local top (10756), and my TP is at (10376). I opened this short because in my reading a 3:1 payoff ratio can be expected. I will manage this setup as counter-trend trade. I will fine tune my TP if a downside movement gets more confirmation and I will have more data to calculate a more exact TP. 

The momentum high of the daily and 4 hours chart stopped at a level where a downside movement can be anticipated. The 1 hour chart just touched the sustainable bull zone for 1 period, which makes it questionable, especially that the momentum of the higher time frames are suggesting a ranging market.

We'll see how this is going to pan out...

DAX30 (CFD) - daily chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hours chart

NZDUSD context - 09/05/2016

I'm following closely the Kiwi, because I anticipate a possibly nice and juicy short setup. The rise from the 0.6146 low can be labeled as a zigzag pattern where wave C is an ending diagonal, or the whole upward movement is a leading diagonal and thus suggesting that at least the first part of a trend reversal is reaching its end. Either way, at least a nice correction is due in my opinion. The first indication would be an impulsive break of the 0.728 support level. The impulsive break of the 0.695 level would give me a nice confirmation, especially if the momentum of the local top won't reach the sustainable bull zone (top blue zone on the RSI). This is just my context. Momentum configuration and signal will also be needed to open a short position.

NZDUSD - weekly chart

Weekly review - 09/04/2016

DAX30:

My anticipation from yesterday didn't work out. The convergence got denied and was ruled out by the price action. The daily chart shows that the market reached the sustainable bull zone and the drop was held by the bullish support zone. In this zone a nice bullish slingshot was triggered and already reached the minimum target (new local high) on Tuesday.

Right now the structure and the momentum on the daily time frame may suggest a bullish continuation with a possible nice BuSS + convergence combination seutp, but the parallel channel is still remaining a resistance. Until then I expect that the market is still going to be ranging. Opening  on Monday should give an indication on what the market wants, because it is still at an intersection. The upward movement on the weekly chart is still within the corrective channel. I think that the market will collect some buying power and make a smaller correction, creating a HH-HL series even in a bullish scenario. We'll see...

DAX30 (CFD) - daily chart

DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DJ30:

The market reached a new ATH. The big picture (monthly chart) definitely looks bullish. Lower time frames can get a bit shaky though.

The weekly chart shows that the market tries to break out of a corrective channel. The momentum is still in a neutral area. In my opinion the market is a range based on the daily chart. The momentum failed to reach sustainable bull zone (yet), the momentum of the drop was stopped in the bullish support zone and the price is still above the preceding wave iv. But I think this drop on the 4 hours chart looks impulsive and formed a leading diagonal. So I think next week the market will test the lower line of the rang

DJ30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DJ30 (CFD) - Daily chart

DJ30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

 

DAX update - 09/02/2016

I didn't have the time and energy to take care of this blog during the year, so I decided to start with a short update on the big picture.

DAX - monthly chart - RSI and channels

Almost a year ago I posted an update on the context of DAX30.

I think the market shifted into that bigger correction regarding the monthly chart. The first part - wave A of (4) - of this bigger correction has developed and reached the target level of 8500. The drop was contained within a corrective channel.  After this the market so far made a 3 waves looking formation, because the price action is yet contained by another corrective channel (closer view on the weekly chart). So right now the DAX reached an intersection.

DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

Because the RSI on the monthly chart it is more likely that market should reach higher price, but a little correction on the daily and 4 hours chart is more likely need before that. I think a successful test of the upper channel line of the previous correction (see it on the weekly chart) would be a good indication of bull continuation context, and at least a higher price level for wave B or X of (4). I'm currently waiting for a confirmation of the L/H-L/L convergence on the RSI (4 hours chart) before entering on the short side. I think wave (x) was a flat correction, but I need more proof before opening a position. So if it gets confirmed, the short trade would be counter-trend. So I would put my TP around the 10300s level. 

Update: 17:06 (GMT+2)

The above mentioned convergence is pretty much ruled out.

DAX Context - 19/11/2015

Full post will be updated later on this week, right now I just post an image of the main idea.

DAX (CFD) - Weekly - Daily - 4 hours charts