Trades - 09/15/2016

Update: 19:05
Kiwi stopped out at (16:48 gmt+2) 0.72822 with +11 pip.

Update: 14:45
Closed dax @ 10362 with -55 poitns.
Opened kiwi short @ 0.72934, sl@0.731

Update 11:45 (GMT+2)
Closed dax long @ 10383 with +19 points.
I opened a short @ 10383 ; sl@ 10413.
Possible bearish slingshot on 15 minutes chart.
Bad decision. Got stopped out almost immediately.
Reentered a long with a smaller position @ 10417 with a more loosened SL@10337 with TP@10555. Looks like the original context and setup might work out. This is my last try. If this gets stop out then I'll "bench" myself for today.

Update 10:50 (GMT+2)
KIWI long got stopped out. I broke even.

DAX30:
I opened a dax long position. The last support level (10320) is so far untouched. The drop is contained by a parallel downward channel. Corrections tend to end at the boundary line or at middle line of these parallel channel. The momentum on the daily time frame is still at support, while the price is right now still at the lower part of a bigger range. This is may be my last try for a long and I only aim the top of a smaller channel shown on the 1 hour chart. This is where the MA10/20 on the daily chart can be found at the moment. It's quite a delicate situation because channels pretty much can be drawn across the chart. The channel drawn from the high 10542 is still a resistance and the price may keep bouncing down from that line.

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

I have a KIWI long right now. I still have pretty much the same context as before. The downward channel behaved as resistance so far. I expect to pierce below the critical support zone then a test of this level should be in place.

NZDUSD - Daily chart

NZDUSD - 4 hours chart

Trades - 14/09/2016

Rest of my DJI30 long stopped out @ 18085 and DAX30 long was closed @ 10370.

Update: 18:01
DJI30 long was opened @ 18104. Scaled out 1/2 @ 18122. Sl raised to 18085.

DJI30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

Update: 17:39
DAX Sl@10370

Update: 17:17
Sl@10365

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update:17:12
Dax long @10372, sl@10349.

Update: 17:07
Closed kiwi@0.73961

Update: 16:32 (GMT+2)
DJI30 reached top of the parallel channel. I decided to close @ 18151 with +61 point.

DJ30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart (small channel behaved as resistance so far)

Update: 16:22 (GMT+2)
All my positions got stopped out. I opened a DJI30 and another NZDUSD long. SLs set to break even.

DJI30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

NZDUSD - 15 minutes chart

Update 13:20
I raised my kiwi sl to 0.758. Scaled out half @ 0.783
Opened another dax long@10424, sl @ 10415 now, tp@10495. I raised the sl on my other long as well to 10385. Picture will be uploaded later on.

I just made some mind adjustment on my last update yesterday. The context is still pretty much the same.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

I scaled out half my position at top zone of the mini range shown on the 15 minutes chart. This range needs to break for bullish continuation. The corrective channel of the yesterday's drop looks broken after a successful retest. Price must stay above 10350 to keep the short term bullish anticipation valid. 

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

I also have opened a long NZDUSD. I anticipate at least a retest of the local high, then ideally a breakout near to the 0.736 resistance zone. I plan to scale out around 0.730 if the bulls will continue to prevail.

NZDUSD - 1 hour chart

DAX30 - 13/09/2016

Update 18:15 (GMT+2):
My long got stopped out. I'm looking for a reentry on the long side if a setup will come up. The market dropped to an ideal Fibonacci retracement level and touched the lower line of the corrective channel. (This is what I wanted to realize with my short position.) This should be a good place to buy if a setup and signal will come along too. It's wait and see now, because if the smaller channel fails to provide support and breaks, then a new low can be expected and may trigger at least a wave [5] or may be even something bigger.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update 16:36

Opened long@10433, sl@10405


--------

Closed position@10457

Sl@10470


Update 15:16 gmt+2:
Lowered my risk. Sl@10485


Update 14:46 gmt+2:
Opened a short @ 10467 sl@10500, tp@10405
For some reason I can't upload image from my cellphone. I'll try to upload when I'll be back at my desktop.


Update 13:22 gmt+2:
 The bounce from 10425 low looks corrective so far. New local low might come today.



Yesterday the market spiked below the 10350 (Fibo 1.618 expansion level) then failed to unfold into an impulse wave. This means that the range is still intact provided support for the bulls. Although now rules have been broken, this bounce right now doesn't look proportional in time or price with a wave [2].

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart.

I think the market will bounce back above 10600 level and will try to test the upper part of the range. The context in my reading is still open in either way. The weekly chart shows that this range is near the higher line of the corrective (or maybe base channel).

DAX30 (CFD) - Weekly chart.

If the market stays above yesterday's low then I think it has a high possibility that the DAX will at least make another L/H or maybe a new local low as part of complex corrective pattern. I will only start to think of a breakout if the weekly channel gets broken and tested.

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart.

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hour chart.

The momentum of the daily time frame provided support for the price action while the RSI on lower time frames reached a state of climax yesterday. Summa summarum, at the moment I think it will be more likely to make profit with an intraday long signal and only expect a retracement. This would be a mutual road for both bullish and bearish interpretation. But if this support will fail hen I will start to think that the preceding price action was a (i)-(ii)-[1]-[2] situation.

Trades - 12/09/2016

Position got stopped out @ 10380 with -14 points. The signal faded and the setup failed. It was really busy at work today and missed the whole upside movement. I expected a bounce for wave [4] but this doesn't look like one, and on the DJI30  chart the market ruled out this interpretation. I'll update my context tomorrow.

Update - 12:04 (GMT+2):
Lowered my risk. Sl @ 10380.

Update - 11:52 (GMT+2):

Try to play out a possible bearish slingshot on the 15 minutes chart. The momentum configuration got triggered but still needs a nice follow through. On the 5 minutes chart the price action from the daily low looks like a triangle pattern. MA10/20 channel is still intact and MA10 is still a resistance.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart with a possible bearish slingshot setup

10:35 (GMT+2)

DAX31 :) - 15 minutes chart

Opened a dax short just a couple of minutes ago. I put my tp on the Fibo. extension 200.0 level @ 10287. I can't rule out that this is part of a wave [4] correction, because wave [2] was a quick ZZ. So I put my sl near to break even and set a trailing stop on it.

Weekly review - 09/11/2016

DJI30: 

I will start my review with the my context on DJ30. The weekly chart shows the momentum failed to reach the sustainable bear zone. This tells me that the ATH high is either an end of an impulse wave or rather it's an intermediate degree wave (B) of primary [4] (not shown on the chart).

DJI30 (CFD) - weekly chart

The smaller rectangle drawn up I call it critical structural EWP support zone because this is the limit of a wave c within a flat pattern. So my plan for next week that above this level I will think of this recent price action as part of a flat correction until the market proves it otherwise. If this 1st zone will fail to provide decent support and the smaller corrective channel (shown on the weekly chart) gets broken then I start to think of a trend reversal and anticipating a wave (C) of [4] to unfold (in either an ABC or an impulse structure). My target then will be the next support zone.

DJI30 (CFD) - Daily chart

The momentum of the daily time frame and below nicely set this breakdown. Th RSI on the daily, 4 hours and 1 hour charts pull backed to a level where a breakdown can be anticipated. This break down got confirmed on 1 and 4 hours time frames. It is crucial that the price reach the 161.8 expansion level, which is the minimum requirement for an impulse wave in my reading. If this level gets reached then a small pause (correction) might come, but it is not necessary. This is just a thought so far. I won't dare to change it if the market will throw something else on the table...

DJI30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

DJI30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

DAX30:

The market almost reached the top of my target zone with closing candle on Friday night (during the last trading hour of the week a nice bearish slingshot got triggered on the 15 minutes chart).

The weekly and daily chart suggest it is still wiser to consider this drop as part of a range. I can draw up the parallel channel on weekly chart in two ways, but one thing would be the same: the market is at (pierced or at least neared) the higher line of this channel. This channel naturally works as a resistance. So my expectation of a ranging market on this time frames proved to be a good idea. The momentum here still only shows that I can just anticipate a breakdown on these time frames. I need more confirmation for thinking to hit lower targets.

DAX30 (CFD) -weekly chart

DAX30 (CFD) -.daily chart

So right now I only expect that most likely a flat c wave will unfold. The ideal end for wave [3] of c would be at 10350. This is what the most likely scenario in my reading right now based on the 4 hours time frame and below. This 10350 level is also the maximum limit for an ABC pattern too. So above that I can't rule out a different corrective pattern (like a triangle), but below this level at least and impulse c wave can be expected. What's interesting that right now and idealized impulse wave structure would pretty much point to the lower line of a flat pattern corrective channel. I think that during most of the Monday session the MA10/20 channel shown on the 15 minutes chart will behave as resistance and will push the price lower nearing the 10350 level.

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 15minutes chart

I can draw up precisely a wave count for an impulse wave from the top on a 4 hours chart, but right now I feel like it would a waist of time. It can be charted as a wave i-ii-[1]-[2], but right now I don't feel the need for charting every little wave, especially because the market is still within the range.

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart with alternate wave count

NZDUSD:

Trades - 09/09/16

Update (20:40GMT+2):
I decided to call it a day and close my positions Dax short was closed @ 10523 with +133 pip. DJ30 short was closed in the parts: 1st @ 18390 with +98 pip and 2nd @ 18192 with +297 pip.

Update (19:47 GMT+2):

Lowered my SLs: (Dax @ 10544 +122 pip; DJ30 @ 18224 +265 pip)

DJ30 and DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes charts

Update (17:37 GMT+2):

Lowered my SLs: (Dax @ 10609 +56 pip; DJ30 @ 18354 +135 pip)

DJ30 and DAX30 (CFD) - 5 minutes and 15 minutes charts

There is a bearish slingshot (BeSS) momentum configuration on the DJ30 chart (5 min. - since I started this update the market already reached the minimum target of a new low.). Dax successfully retested the base channel and the BeSS posted earlier on the 30 minutes chart pushed the price below yesterday's low. 

I will close all my position at the end of the day, because:

• The Dow Jones reached my secondary target zone (new low). 
• The structure of the Dax concerns me. Usually wave c is more fragmented then wave A (rule of alternation). So this drop to a new local low might be a part of a correction (either a flat b of ii within an impulse, or a wave c).

Update (15:30 GMT+2):
SL on Dax tightened (@10635 +30 pip)
SL on DJ30 tightened (@18410 +80 pip)

Update (14:20 GMT+2):

The dax broken the parallel (base) channel. Bearish slingshot works fine so far. Dj30 fall looks like falling through the support zone. Wait and see now...

DJ30 and DAX (CFD) - 4 hours and 30 minutes charts

Update (13:50 GMT+2):
DJ30 short: scaled out 1/2 of the position @ 18390.
DAX short: ST set to break even @ 10667.

Update (12:00 GMT+2):

Loosening the SL seems like it was a good idea. A nice triggered bearish slingshot is displayed on the chart after a reversal signal. SL is now tightened and lowered to the second L/H, because if this momentum configuration fails to break at least to a new daily low then I expect a rapid price action in the opposite direction (bull).

DAX30 (CFD) - 30 minutes chart - bearish slingshot

Update (10:36 GMT+2):

I won't be able to be online for the next 1 or 2 hours. 

This pull back looks like a DZZ so far, thus I decided to move my DAX sl back above the L/H (@10690). Put a trailing stop on it.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update (10:14 GMT+2):
SL lowered on DJ30 (@18467). Primary target zone will be the next support, which is near to fib 61.8 retracement.

DJ30 (CFD) - 1 hour with primary target zone

Update (9:41 GMT+2):
Dax short is now break even.

DAX - 09/08/2016

Update (17:46 GMT+2):

I missed the long entry for a small degree wave c as part of what I think it will be only a pull back. The first important support zone was pierced and now the market retest this level.The bull so far pulled the price back to the Fib. retracement level of 61.8 of today's range.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

The pull back was contained by a parallel channel. The price moved out of this channel suggesting that this correction may be over and the downside movemenet will contiune. The RSI on the 15 minutes and 1 hour chart reached the sustainable bear zone and pulled back to bearish support zone.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart