DAX - 05/19/2015

The index is on a break out attempt, but so far the upper line of the smaller channel is still a resistance. The momentum on the daily chart created a bullish cross which still needs to be confirmed by MA10/20 cross, but the downward channel is broken and today's gap could easily be a runaway gap. Even if this is part of a correction the 11900s level should be tested as 61.8 fibonacchi level is laying right around there. 11 o'clock (CET) ZEW data should determine the next move.

DAX daily chart - channels at crossroads.

DAX Context - 04/05/2015

I'm gonna go for a vacation this week. From next week I'm gonna start studying for my exams, so I'm not gonna follow the market during the day (thus I'm not gonna trade until I'm done). I'll try to update my context every once in a while though.

I think the market is likely bottomed and reached the end of a wave (4). The price action is likely making legs for an attack of the ATH again. This wave count is especially valid above the last week's low. The market reached and ideal level in fibonacchi extension (wave A and wave C)) wise and also hit the ideal fibonnachi retracement level on higher time frame (38.2). Primary targets are marked on the 4 hours chart with red lines.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX context - 30/04/2015

The market exceeded my target zone and reached the bottom of a correction channel (shown on the daily chart). The bigger picture is getting a bit shaky. I had to reconsider my wave count regarding the pattern (triangle wave 4 - see daily chart) reaching ATH. This is also made the Elliott channel modified. But even if this is correct, the lower line of the Elliott channel was pierced. So this is definitely a warning sign. Another concerning sign could be a bearish cross on the weekly RSI, but the week is still on, so I have to wait until next week for this.

Due to the rule of alternation I think the downward movement will continue today from the zone shown on the 4 hours chart. The small time frame candles are too big to pull the trigger on a setup and I'd have to take bigger risk then I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna wait a little more to pull the trigger on the setup.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX and trades - 29/04/2015

17:04 (GMT+1)
Sl closed my short at 3650

16:40 (GMT+1)
The first wave of the drop didn't reach my target and I missed the exit on smaller time frame. Lowered my Sl to 3659.5. I plan to trail the MA20 line if the decline will continue.

EURO STOXX50: 1 hour chart

14:38 (GMT+1)
Trailing stop is on. I hope the channel will break right now.

EURO STOXX50: 4 hours chart

14:33 (GMT+1)
Sl lowered to 3712.

13:30 (GMT+1)
The DAX is starting to look bearish to me concerning near term price action. The only "immediate" bullish outlook is a flat wave [ii] pattern. But if the market break below to yesterday's low then this can be ruled out too. I expect a tricky range and a bigger flat wave pattern as wave B of (4). This is just a thought. Further confirmation is needed to deal with this context.

DAX: h1 -h4 - daily charts

I opened a short on EUSTX50. My primary target is around 3600s.

EUSTOXX50 - daily chart

dax - 28/04/2015

12:57 (GMT+1)
TP was hit. Now it's wait and see for me...So far the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart held the drop in a parallel channel.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

12:34 (GMT+1)

It looks like the price action couldn't form a decent impulsive wave. The minimum target was reached more like in a 3 wave pattern, although I cannot rule out the possibility that the index is just gathering some more strength in a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) pattern. The momentum on the 4 hours chart hit the bearish support zone and couldn't reach the bullish territory, while the RSI on the 1 hour is about the form a bearish cross. The channel shown on the 15 minutes chart must break to confirm at least a correction of yesterday's price action.

DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts

DAX - 27/04/2015

16:52
Rest of the long is closed át 12021.

14:50 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 11984.5

14:43 (GMT+1)
The price action is on the break regarding the 1 and 4 hours chart. I think higher prices is still reachable (shown on 4 hours chart) even if the bottom wasn't an end of flat C wave.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h4 charts

12:26 (GMT+1)
Sl raised to 11798, then to 11805. Scaled out 1/2 at 11838.5. Trailing stop is on.

11:50 (GMT+1)

I'm paying close attention to a bullish opportunity. Different scenarios are still hanging in the air. No critical support was broken last week so I'll try to play bullish setups above that line. The channel on the 5 minutes chart is broken and I think the 1 hour chart shows a very chaotic leading diagonal and flat patterns. I think the higher channel line shown on the 1 hour chart is a reachable target zone for today. We'll see how this works out.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

trades - 24/04/2015

10:50 (GMT+1)
Scaled out 1/3 at 11876. Sl raised to 11800.

10:38 (GMT+1)

I think the index made a leading diagonal (shown on the 15 minutes chart). I expect higher prices for today and at least a hit of the 161.8 fibonacchi level and a backtest of the higher line of the channel (shown on the 1 hour chart). The market already hit the higher line of the channel. Now let's see if it will try to break out.

DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts