Dax - 04/08/2015

Update: 14:00
I got stopped out at 11421.

Update: 13:05
I had a couple of tries on both way. First I tried to play a break out attempt. I realized 1,5R. but it looked like it is going to fail So I jumped to the short side.

I had a short from 11446. Tp at 11408,5. https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769756/dax30-pro-m5-admiral-markets-as The market reached my tp, but i got stopped out at 11424,5.

So I decided to  reenter on the short side again. I think lower prices might be ahead of us based on the 15 minutes chart.

Dax (CFD) 15 minutes chart

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This July was pretty hectic for me. I wasn't able to focus on trading.
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The dax is in an interesting situation. The higer time-frames are pretty much 50-50 right now. In my primary wave count I think a DZZ was completed and right now the index is testing the corrective channel. The preceding drop looks corrective, a sharp ZZ, right to higher channel line. My alternate count suggest at least a test of the lower channel line. This alternate version shows an ideal pattern for the price action. In this scenario, if the price action will pierce and test successfully the lower corrective channel line, I think a wave 3 will be on its way and we'll see more downside movement.

Either way this is gonna play out, based on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts, I think at least the 61.8 Fibonacchi level of the preceding drop is reachable.

I have a long position in DAX CFD opened at 11421. Sl is at break even. Trailing stop is on.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769190/dax30-pro-m15-admiral-markets-as

Dax primary wave count on 4 hours chart

Dax alternate wave count on 4 hours chart

Trades - 01/07/2015

11:26

Reentered for a quick long scalp. RSI on m1-m5-m15 suggested at least on marginal high (at least a wave B). 2R in the pocket. Closed at 11220. We'll see how the rest of the day will play out, now I'm gonna sit on my hands and wait out. The price action looks like it's on a break out attempt, but this needs further confirmation.

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m1 charts

11:16
SL closed my position at 11145.

11:09
I have a long postion. Context will be updated later today. Trailing stop loss order is on

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m5 charts

DAX - 05/19/2015

The index is on a break out attempt, but so far the upper line of the smaller channel is still a resistance. The momentum on the daily chart created a bullish cross which still needs to be confirmed by MA10/20 cross, but the downward channel is broken and today's gap could easily be a runaway gap. Even if this is part of a correction the 11900s level should be tested as 61.8 fibonacchi level is laying right around there. 11 o'clock (CET) ZEW data should determine the next move.

DAX daily chart - channels at crossroads.

DAX Context - 04/05/2015

I'm gonna go for a vacation this week. From next week I'm gonna start studying for my exams, so I'm not gonna follow the market during the day (thus I'm not gonna trade until I'm done). I'll try to update my context every once in a while though.

I think the market is likely bottomed and reached the end of a wave (4). The price action is likely making legs for an attack of the ATH again. This wave count is especially valid above the last week's low. The market reached and ideal level in fibonacchi extension (wave A and wave C)) wise and also hit the ideal fibonnachi retracement level on higher time frame (38.2). Primary targets are marked on the 4 hours chart with red lines.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX context - 30/04/2015

The market exceeded my target zone and reached the bottom of a correction channel (shown on the daily chart). The bigger picture is getting a bit shaky. I had to reconsider my wave count regarding the pattern (triangle wave 4 - see daily chart) reaching ATH. This is also made the Elliott channel modified. But even if this is correct, the lower line of the Elliott channel was pierced. So this is definitely a warning sign. Another concerning sign could be a bearish cross on the weekly RSI, but the week is still on, so I have to wait until next week for this.

Due to the rule of alternation I think the downward movement will continue today from the zone shown on the 4 hours chart. The small time frame candles are too big to pull the trigger on a setup and I'd have to take bigger risk then I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna wait a little more to pull the trigger on the setup.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX and trades - 29/04/2015

17:04 (GMT+1)
Sl closed my short at 3650

16:40 (GMT+1)
The first wave of the drop didn't reach my target and I missed the exit on smaller time frame. Lowered my Sl to 3659.5. I plan to trail the MA20 line if the decline will continue.

EURO STOXX50: 1 hour chart

14:38 (GMT+1)
Trailing stop is on. I hope the channel will break right now.

EURO STOXX50: 4 hours chart

14:33 (GMT+1)
Sl lowered to 3712.

13:30 (GMT+1)
The DAX is starting to look bearish to me concerning near term price action. The only "immediate" bullish outlook is a flat wave [ii] pattern. But if the market break below to yesterday's low then this can be ruled out too. I expect a tricky range and a bigger flat wave pattern as wave B of (4). This is just a thought. Further confirmation is needed to deal with this context.

DAX: h1 -h4 - daily charts

I opened a short on EUSTX50. My primary target is around 3600s.

EUSTOXX50 - daily chart

dax - 28/04/2015

12:57 (GMT+1)
TP was hit. Now it's wait and see for me...So far the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart held the drop in a parallel channel.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

12:34 (GMT+1)

It looks like the price action couldn't form a decent impulsive wave. The minimum target was reached more like in a 3 wave pattern, although I cannot rule out the possibility that the index is just gathering some more strength in a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) pattern. The momentum on the 4 hours chart hit the bearish support zone and couldn't reach the bullish territory, while the RSI on the 1 hour is about the form a bearish cross. The channel shown on the 15 minutes chart must break to confirm at least a correction of yesterday's price action.

DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts