NZDUSD context - 09/05/2016

I'm following closely the Kiwi, because I anticipate a possibly nice and juicy short setup. The rise from the 0.6146 low can be labeled as a zigzag pattern where wave C is an ending diagonal, or the whole upward movement is a leading diagonal and thus suggesting that at least the first part of a trend reversal is reaching its end. Either way, at least a nice correction is due in my opinion. The first indication would be an impulsive break of the 0.728 support level. The impulsive break of the 0.695 level would give me a nice confirmation, especially if the momentum of the local top won't reach the sustainable bull zone (top blue zone on the RSI). This is just my context. Momentum configuration and signal will also be needed to open a short position.

NZDUSD - weekly chart

Weekly review - 09/04/2016

DAX30:

My anticipation from yesterday didn't work out. The convergence got denied and was ruled out by the price action. The daily chart shows that the market reached the sustainable bull zone and the drop was held by the bullish support zone. In this zone a nice bullish slingshot was triggered and already reached the minimum target (new local high) on Tuesday.

Right now the structure and the momentum on the daily time frame may suggest a bullish continuation with a possible nice BuSS + convergence combination seutp, but the parallel channel is still remaining a resistance. Until then I expect that the market is still going to be ranging. Opening  on Monday should give an indication on what the market wants, because it is still at an intersection. The upward movement on the weekly chart is still within the corrective channel. I think that the market will collect some buying power and make a smaller correction, creating a HH-HL series even in a bullish scenario. We'll see...

DAX30 (CFD) - daily chart

DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DJ30:

The market reached a new ATH. The big picture (monthly chart) definitely looks bullish. Lower time frames can get a bit shaky though.

The weekly chart shows that the market tries to break out of a corrective channel. The momentum is still in a neutral area. In my opinion the market is a range based on the daily chart. The momentum failed to reach sustainable bull zone (yet), the momentum of the drop was stopped in the bullish support zone and the price is still above the preceding wave iv. But I think this drop on the 4 hours chart looks impulsive and formed a leading diagonal. So I think next week the market will test the lower line of the rang

DJ30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DJ30 (CFD) - Daily chart

DJ30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

 

DAX update - 09/02/2016

I didn't have the time and energy to take care of this blog during the year, so I decided to start with a short update on the big picture.

DAX - monthly chart - RSI and channels

Almost a year ago I posted an update on the context of DAX30.

I think the market shifted into that bigger correction regarding the monthly chart. The first part - wave A of (4) - of this bigger correction has developed and reached the target level of 8500. The drop was contained within a corrective channel.  After this the market so far made a 3 waves looking formation, because the price action is yet contained by another corrective channel (closer view on the weekly chart). So right now the DAX reached an intersection.

DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

Because the RSI on the monthly chart it is more likely that market should reach higher price, but a little correction on the daily and 4 hours chart is more likely need before that. I think a successful test of the upper channel line of the previous correction (see it on the weekly chart) would be a good indication of bull continuation context, and at least a higher price level for wave B or X of (4). I'm currently waiting for a confirmation of the L/H-L/L convergence on the RSI (4 hours chart) before entering on the short side. I think wave (x) was a flat correction, but I need more proof before opening a position. So if it gets confirmed, the short trade would be counter-trend. So I would put my TP around the 10300s level. 

Update: 17:06 (GMT+2)

The above mentioned convergence is pretty much ruled out.

DAX Context - 19/11/2015

Full post will be updated later on this week, right now I just post an image of the main idea.

DAX (CFD) - Weekly - Daily - 4 hours charts

DAX - 18/09/2015

Yesterday's forecast is still intact. The market made a little trick during the FED decision, but no critical level was damaged by that. The context is still pretty much the same. The lower part of the range is almost reached. I expect at least and ending diagonal pattern at wave [c] position of a complex flat. The RSI on the 4 hour chart is about to hit the sustainable bearish zone, which could confirm the bearish bias. I still cannot rule out a retest of yesterday's high, but it has a really slight chance. So in my reading this market is bearish in short term, especially below the 10500 level resistance (need to pay attention at support levels of the bigger range though).

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 -h4 charts

DAX 17/09/2015

Just a quick drawing on what I think is more likely going to happen  if the support on the 4 hour chart will fall. I'm going to write some more comment on this scenario later on...

DAX (CFD) - m15 -  h1 -h4 charts

DAX 15/09/2015

The market is still ranging on smaller degree, but the 4 hours chart may show signs of a bearish opportunity though. The momentum failed to reach the sustainable bull zone and the RSI stopped at the top of the bearish support (and even get a little bit into a neutral zone white zone). Another important thing about this time frame is that the L/L and L/H series are converging with the RSI. 

A downside break out from the range shown on the 15 minutes and 1 hour chart would suggest that the bears on the 4 hours chart want to test the lower part of the bigger range. This would trigger at least a wave [c] of a really complex flat pattern. Due to the triangle shape, which was created last week, in this cases the wave [c] is either going to be an ending diagonal, or this small range shown on the 15 minutes chart is actually going to be a bearish (i)-(ii)-i-ii situation (instead of a bullish (i)-(ii)-i-ii series, which I wrote about yesterday). 

I can't really commit to either side on higher time frame until the market keeps ranging and only try to find smaller degree setups.

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 - h4 charts