Dax - 07/04/2015

21:27 (GMT+1)
The daily time frame triggered a bullish slingshot.

17:13 (GMT+1)
I gotta get going. I will be away from the computer for the rest of the day. I decided to close the rest of my long at 12115.

17:03 (GMT+1)
I'm expecting a price action similar to the January of 2015.

h4-d1 charts from 1st of April

16:32 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 12139.5.

16:23 (GMT+1)
I opened another long and I'm hoping that the dax will reach higher prices today. I'm expecting a tricky movement though, which I might have posted already last week about the similarity of the recent price action with the first weeks of january 2015.

m5-m15-h1

13:23 (GMT+1)
The higher long is closed at 12106.5. 2R in the pocket.

13:09 (GMT+1)
It looks like it was a good decision to lower my Sl back a little bit and to open another long. We'll see how this is going to work out because we are near to a resistance.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:32 (GMT+1)
Break even.

10:28 (GMT+1)
Raised my SL to 12065.5. 15 minutes chart offers a bullish slingshot opportunity.


10:21 (GMT+1)
I opened a long position.

m5-m15-h4 charts

9:39 (GMT+1)
The triangle pattern looks like it's gonna fail, at least it has a slight chance. The price action might get tricky again, but I try to hop on this inverse h&s pattern opportunity (not valid yet) and open a long position.

9:15 (GMT+1)
My shorts got stop out at entry points. This is what I pay close attention on the 4 hours chart.

h4 chart. Inverse h&s pattern is not valid yet.

9:06 (GMT+1)
This is the short setup I'm trying to play out. I just missed the scale out level, so now I'm just trying to sit on my hands. I'm still thinking this is part of a correction on the 1 and 4 hours chart (most likely a wave [e] of triangle) and after the patterm is done, I anticipate a break out attempt to reach ATH again.

m5-m15-h4

8:30 (GMT+1)
On the 1 hour chart this upside movement might be part of a triangle. Last Friday's price action got even trickier then I expected. I'm looking for a gap filling for today.

Trades - 02/04/2015

16:01 (GMT+1)
Scale out.

15:55 (GMT+1)
Break even. Top of the mini channel on the 1 hour chart is near.

15:36 (GMT+1)
I'm back and I entered the market on the long side. I think the price action just tested the correction channel drawn on the 1 hour chart. There is also a bullish slingshot on the daily time frame. We'll see how this is going to work out.

m5-m15-h1

14:58 (GMT+1)
Still on the way. I'm trying to follow on my cell. I think the 1 hour chart shows bullish signs.


11:30 (GMT+1)
Today is really busy for me. Hopefully I'll be able to follow the market more tight during the afternoon. I'm gonna away from the computer for a while now. The rest of my long got stop out.

9:45 (GMT+1)
Scaled out.I'm gonna open another long if the break out attempt will be proved to be valid.

9:39 (GMT+1)
I entered the market on the long side. Correction channel must break. Since I started to type the market is going for a break out attempt on the 5 minutes chart.

m5-m15-h1 charts

9:30 (GMT+1)
So far the drop from yesreday's top looks corrective. The 4 hours chart shows potentially bullish patterns, namely an inverse H&S, but the price is still under the neckline, so it is not valid yet.

4 hours chart and an inverse H&S pattern (price is under the neckline)

Trades - 01/04/2015

16.22 (GMT+1)
I couldn't follow the position. It got stop out at 12041. 

14:22 (GMT+1)
I try to play out another short setup. I'm not sure that the market is going to reach my TP because we are at the primary target zone.

m5-m15-h1

13:21 (GMT+1)
Closed my short at 12072.5. I'm gonna take a break now.

13:15(GMT+1)
Break even. Channel on 5 minutes charts must be broken for continuation.


13:00(GMT+1)
I'm trying to play out a short setup. Primary target zone is at 12030s.

m5-m15-h1

12:48(GMT+1)
Aussie got stop at 0.7602


11:38(GMT+1)
The rally is really intense. I can only scalp this market and it's hard to post the position live. I had 2 long scalps: one was from 12058.5 to 12075.5 and  the other was from1 2080 to 12103.

10:40(GMT+1)
I opened a short position in AUDUSD. Context will be uploaded later. I'm anticipating at least a wave 5 on the 4 hours time frame with a target zone below 0.7550s level.

m15-h1-h4

10:01 (GMT+1)
Examining the 4 hours and daily charts the reversal was nicely set up. Many correction channels were broken and tested today and the MA10/20 channel on the daily time frame also provided nice support again. If this will only be a part of a ranging correction I still think that wave [b] and [c] is missing and the this mornings' rally was at least a wave [ä].

m15-h1-d1

9:55 (GMT+1)
Resistance and the psychological level of 12000 is near, so I decided to take profit at 11995.5.


9:51 (GMT+1)

The DAX reached an ideal level for a correction, but the context of the bigger picture is still open. I'm following a complex correction pattern, because so far the index has shown 3 wave patterns. Nevertheless it doesn't mean that the rally cannot be an impulsive wave, namely and ending diagonal. Whatever the market will decide, this 2 interpretation should move in the same direction for a while. The channel drawn on m30 and h1 shows us that most likely a double zigzag pattern is finished and the market should rise higher even in case of a complex correction pattern on the daily time frame.

m5-m30-h1

Trades - 31/03/2015

18:33
Sl lowered  to 11952.

17:00 (GMT+1)
If this is really an ending diagonal in a flat (c) position, then at least a higher degree wave [c] should be on its way under today's low real quick.

m5-m15-h1

16:37 (GMT+1)
Just a thought. It still needs confirmation.

m5-m15-h1

15:32 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out.

15:25 (GMT+1)
This is a very delicate place. There is a nice short setup on the 1 hour chart, but that doesn't mean the market can't retrace to a higher price even if the context is right. The price must break below the channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart for continuing the downside movement.

m5-m15-h1

14:47 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I'm gonna take a break now from trading because I wasn't patient enough.
 
14:43 (GMT+1)
I'm betting on the continuation of the downside movement. Sl is lowered to 11975.5.

m5-m15-h1

14:38 (GMT+1)
I've tried to make a long scalp but the position got stop out near break even.
dax_m5_scalp

14:24 (GMT+1)
Closed position at 11963.5. I'm waiting for the next setup.

14:13 (GMT+1)
Break even.

14:08 (GMT+1)
I'm trying to play out a bearish continuation setup.

m1-m5-m15

13:46 (GMT+1)
Short position got stop out. The market might pause for a little while now and retrace some of today's drop.

13:27 (GMT+1)
Lowered my SL to 12000.

13:04 (GMT+1)
The momentum of the 1 hour chart looks bearish: the failure to swing high was followed by a bearish cross.

m5-m15-h1

11:54 (GMT+1)
Break even. I try to be patient and sit on my hand.

11:52 (GMT+1)
Short opened.

m1-m5-m15

11:43 (GMT+1)
Closed on M1 exit signal at 12051.5.

11:37 (GMT+1)
I opened a short position and lowered my sl. This might be just a wave [B] on the 1 minute chart, but the correction channel is near (see 1 hour chart) and I hope that the price action will pierce right through it.

m5-m15-h1

11:13 (GMT+1)
I decided to close my short. I'm gonna try to reenter though.


11:11 (GMT+1)
Break even.


11:06 (GMT+1)
I'm trying to play out a short setup again. It looks like the bullish slingshot on the 1 hour chart wasn't able to push the price higher. A break down under the today's low would support the bear bias.

m5-m15-h1

10:26 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out.


10:08 (GMT+1)
I opened a short position. The minimum target is 12030, but I hope it will go lower and test the support zone located at 11800s level. SL is at 2 point above today's high.

m5-m15-h1

9:57 (GMT+1)
I think the channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart should determine the direction of the next wave. In case of a new local high I will look for a long setup.

m5-m15-h1

Daily Dax - 30/03/15

18:27
I decided to close position at 12105.

17:19
Position is still alive. The rise is fragmented though. I can see potential in this long setup to hold it a little longer, and the market should go up to the 12150s ideally.

15:58 (GMT+1)
Break even and scale out at 12072. Trailing stop is on and tp is deleted.

14:46 (GMT+1)
I'm betting on the continuation of the bull for today.

m5-m15-h4

13:38 (GMT+1)
The RSI doesn't confirm the triangle pattern. It is gonna be either a flat or at least a temporary trend reversal within a higher degree correction.
 
13:20 (GMT+1)
May be another triangle pattern unfolding on the 15 minutes chart.

12:25 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. Looking for another long setup.

10:45 (GMT+1)
I reentered the market on the long side. SL raised to 12030.5. I'm still anticipating that the market will reach higher prices today, but even if this is going to be a small degree wave (B) of (X), I am hoping that will have the chance to at least break even.

m5-m15-h4

10:35 (GMT+1)
Rest of my long got stop pit at 12030.

9:55 (GMT+1)
Systems are partially up an running. I'm still anticipating a wave B as part of a bigger triangle or a flat pattern. Tp set to 12148.5.

m5-m15-h4

9:48 (GMT+1)

Scale out at 12039. Sl is moved to break even.

9:42 (GMT+1)
Both of my systems are down. I can only follow the market on my cell.

9:36 (GMT+1)
Open long at 12008.5, SL: 11985

9:30 (GMT+1)

Unfortunately I couldn't hop on the long wagon after the triangle test was completed (morning meeting and a little technical difficulty with the internet).

Hopefully I can still find a setup to play out.

DAX - 27/03/2015

19:09 GMT+1 
Price action on the 15 minutes chart looks like a triangle pattern is unfolding in most likely a b of b position, although it can also be a bearish triangle in a lesser degree. Open test is needed to determine its position. Later on I'll post an illustration about this.

13:45 (GMT+1)
I closed my position on my cellphone at 11843. I'm done with trading for today. Have a good weekend everyone!

13:31 (GMT+1)
Break even.


13:28 (GMT+1)
Channel must break for a bigger downside movement. I got leave for a meeting and I won't be able to follow the position. I put a trainling stop on the position.

m5 charts

13:18 (GMT+1)
Break even.

13:11 (GMT+1)
I'm gonna try to play out a short scenario.

m5-m15-h1

12:07 (GMT+1)
I decided to close the position at 11900.


11:42 (GMT+1)
I think the market will test today's high, but at least the 11930 level.

m5-m15-h1

 11:20 (GMT+1)
Closed the rest of my long at 11885.5. I'm gonna take a break from trading now.  The correction from the temporary top has reached the minimal level I expected but I think a more complex pattern on the 5 and 15 minutes chart may unfold, and we might see the price action to break below today's low. We'll see...it's friday :)

11:15 (GMT+1)
Opened a long. I expect at least a wave B to be carried out. SL is already raised to 11870 and I scaled the position  at 11890.

11:04 (GMT+1)

Channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart might decide the direction of the next wave. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel. Upside break out would suggest at least a correction to the level of 11900s. I plan to open a long if the channel gets tested.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:59 (GMT+1)
Stop out.

10:56 (GMT+1)

m5 charts

SL lowered to 11823.

10:40 (GMT+1)
I didn't wait for the TP and closed the short at 11817. The position reached 2R.

10:35 (GMT+1)

Back on the short side for one last time. So far my balance is negative for the day, and I don't want to burn anymore of this week's profit. If this position gets closed in a loss, I will go away from the market at least until the U.S. opening. Another mistake would show me that I can't see the market well at moment.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:31 (GMT+1)
It was a bad decision to open a long position and I got my punishment for that.

10:27 (GMT+1)
Quick try for a long. Price has bounced from the bottom line of the channel. And it got quickly closed too :(

m1 chart

10:22 (GMT+1)
One more try to play out this short setup. Hopefully the correction won't be a flat...

m5-m15-h1

I decided to step back and closed my position at the bottom line of a channel on the 1 minute chart. I'm gonna reenter if new local low will occur.

10:00 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I blew this trade, but I'm gonna seek reentry on the short side if there is an opportunity.

9:51 (GMT+1)
Break even. 1 hour candle looks like it's going to be a reversal one.

9:47 (GMT+1)
Even if this is not going to be an impulse wave on the 5 minutes chart, I think the 11850 level is reachable from here. Lowered my SL to 11890.

m5-m15-h1 charts

9:35 (GMT+1)
So far the drop on the1 minute chart looks like a correction. Position got stop out. A new high would suggest a continuation of the rally, while a break of 11880 would make a bearish bias.

9:32 (GMT+1)
Short position opened at 11904. SL already lowered to 11911. Tp modified to 11860. I also put a trailing stop on it.

m5-m15-h1 charts

9:25 (GMT+1)

For a temporary top to be in place the market needs to make a reversal candle on the 5 and 15 minutes chart and then a break of the Elliott channel drawn on the 15 minutes chart. I plan to scalp today and I think my first trade will be a short. Ideal target zone would be the support provided by a triangle (m15) around 11850. Now I'm gonna wait for a setup.

m5-m15-h1 charts

8:45 (GMT+1)
MA10/20 channel on the 15 minutes chart supported the upside movement nicely. Ideal fibonacci expansion levels have been reached. A smaller degree impulse wave may be building a temporary top.

Dax - 26/03/2015

17:23 (GMT+1)
Closed the rest of my long at 11831. I'm done with trading for today. Context will be updated at the end of the day or tomorrow morning.

16:59 (GMT+1)
Context of the bigger picture will be influenced by today's daily candle.

16:41 (GMT+1)
Although it looks like finally the break out attempt will be successful, but I decided to scale out half my position at 11760. My primary target zone is 11800-11840.

16:32 (GMT+1)
Break even.

16:29 (GMT+1)
Channel hold back the break out attempt. This my last try. SL raised to 11700.

m5-m15-h1

16:21 (GMT+1)
Positions got stop out.

15:44(GMT+1)
I'm really hoping I see the market well. Fingers crossed ;)

m5-m15-h1

15:34 (GMT+1)
Closed long at 11718. There might be a pull back on 5 minutes chart, but I'm gonna seek a reentry though.

15:22 (GMT+1)
Break even.

15:18 (GMT+1)
Opened 1 contract (CFD) long. Hopefully it will bounce from the lower line of the channel.

m5-m15-h1

15:12 (GMT+1)
Position is closed by SL. Price action bounced back from the top of the channel. I'm gonna wait for another setup.

15:00 (GMT+1)
SL raised to 11688.5

15:00 (GMT+1)
Opened 1 contract (CFD) long. The channel drawn on 5 and 15 minutes charts is crucial.

14:39 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out at 11684. I plan to reenter in case of a new local high, because I can't rule out at least one more marginal low.

14:24 (GMT+1)
Raised my SL to 11684. This might get more complicated...

14:05 (GMT+1)
Just got back. On the way to a meeting I decided to try this long thing one more time and opened a long position at 1160.5 on my cell phone. I'm still not sure it will work out as I planned though.

m5-m15-h1

Today the daily close will be really important to me, beside the momentum of the 4 hours chart, which might find support around here. We'll see..

h4-d1

Even if this position will play out as I thought it will, I'm still gonna be disappointed with my performance. I should have be much more patient.

12:46  (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I'm most likely done for today with trading.

12:23  (GMT+1)
I see a bigger potential in this long trade then I first thought. I lowered my SL to 11654.5. This is a little hazardous, but I can see a possibility for a gap filling today. TP at 11820. We'll see. If this position will stop out, I will be getting strike out too for the rest of the day.

m5-m15-h1

11:25 (GMT+1
Raised my TP to 11749 and put on a trailing stop.

11:25 (GMT+1)
I put my SL higher to 11674.5. TP set to 11730.

11:23 (GMT+1)
One more shot at the long trade. Hopefully this one will pan out better then the last one.

m5-m15-h1

11:19 (GMT+1)
I just had a badly timed entry on the long side and my stop closed the position almost immediately.
EP: 11670, SL:11655 - This was strike 2.


11:06 (GMT+1)
Ending diagonal pattern got ruled out, but there is another channel that might decide the near term direction. Upside break out attempt may trigger at least a wave 4 correction on the 15 minutes chart.

channel on 5 minutes chart

10:56 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out at break even but I think the context is still intact.

10:50 (GMT+1)
I'm paying close attention to the possibility of an ending diagonal pattern. If the market invalids this pattern then a more intense downside movement will come. I manage my position as a counter trend trade thus hold my TP at 11610 and put on a relatively tight trailing stop.

Possible ending diagonal pattern on 5 minutes chart

10:46 (GMT+1):
It is time to break even.

10:44 (GMT+1):
Lowered my SL to 11665 and modified my TP to 11610.

10:42 (GMT+1):
I try to play out another bearish setup with a possible bearish slingshot on 5 minutes chart.

m5-m15-h4

10:24 (GMT+1) - Context:

The market continued to drop lower and almost reached the target of my last trade. Even higher time frame (4 hours chart) shows signs of the bearish concept, but for a bigger drop the correction channel must be broken and ideally needs to get tested. In this case I will start to think a higher degree trend reversal. The ideal Fibonacci levels within a correction have been already reached - [w] and [y]; (a) of [y] and (c) of [y] and so on - but regarding the daily chart the ideal retracement level would be in 11500sh zone (the zone of wave 2 of an extended wave 5, which is also the zone for the 38.2 Fibonacci level).

10:12 (GMT+1):

I've decided to close my short at 11661. Now I'm gonna take a coffee break :)

10:10 (GMT+1):

The bottom of the channel drawn on the 1 hour chart is getting near. I'm really considering closing my position.

9:58 (GMT+1):

Entered on the short side on a 1 minute signal. It looks promising. We'll see how it's gonna pan out. I lowered my SL to 11710 and put my TP at 11615.

m5-m15-h4

9:46 (GMT+1):

I think this channel is crucial and will decide the direction of the next wave.

5 mintues chart

9:40 (GMT+1):

I've sold 1 contract (CFD) but it looks like I haven't been waiting patiently enough because my position already got stop out.

EP: 11700, SL: 11715

This is strike one!

9:23 (GMT+1):

This is a place where patience is needed. There was a nice and pretty fast drop and so far the market left a nice gap on the chart, especially if you look at the cash index. It is difficult to enter the market this late, because very wide price swings may occur. So with my usual 15 point SL order a stop out is very likely. I need to sit on my hands and wait for a nice setup within my core risk.

I pay close attention to the channel drawn up on the 5 minutes chart. The RSI on the 1 hour chart broke the bullish support zone and the drop started from an ideal level of momentum. For more movement to the downside the traders on the 4 hours and daily charts have to think that this is actually not a "buy the dip" place.

m5-m15-h4

Let's take a closer look on the daily chart. As I was saying yesterday a daily close below the MA10 line might open the way for the price to touch the MA20 line. This channel created by these moving averages supported nicely the whole (in my opinion) wave 3. Today's low actually touched the base channel of the 1-2. If you box the size of wave 2 correction you can see that this drop from the ATH is already equal to wave 2 time wise. The rule of alternation would suggest if this is actually a correction then it should be a slower and more complex one then it was wave 2. It is true that you can chart the wave count differently, but this is what I followed throughout the rally and so far I see no reason to change it, unless the market prove it otherwise.

Daily chart of the rally

8:01 (GMT+1): context

With Today's gap down opening in futures, the minimum retracment for a correction was reached, but there is still more room for the bearish side.