trades - 13/04/2015

10:55 (GMT+1)
My entry was badly timed. Strike 1.

10:54 (GMT+1)
In case of a new ATH I will try to join the long side, aiming for 12500s level.

10:49 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level (fibonacci and top of the channel). If support breaks on the 1 hour I think the price should drop at least to the lower channel line. I'd like to see a test of the neckline.
 Sl is raised ot 12365.5, tp is at 12230.5.

Dax: m5-m15 h1 charts

DAX - Context 10/04/2015

I've decided to put the context in a separte post and update a little bit wiht another chart.

The DAX index got above the neckline and ATH. The daily momentum might create a bullish cross, which would indicate the continuation of the rally, but it doesn't necessary mean that price action can't pause or even retrace. So the big picture is still open and should look out for the correction channel on the daily time frame (it can be drawn 2 ways in my opinion) and a bull trap as wave B of flat/triangle. I think these patterns may be ruled out if the market will go above 12500. Then this wave B scenario has a very slight chance and the market will go for the next target zone on the monthly chart (DAX perspectives). But bear in mind that a monthly candle can absorb a lot of movement in either way and the market triggered a daily bullish slingshots.

DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts

The price action is nearing to the correction channel on the 4 hours chart and almost at the first ideal Fibonacci level. The momentum reached the bull zone but the candle is not closed yet. The bias remain bullish above the 12120-12020 zone on this time frame and above.

DAX - 4 hours chart

The weekly chart also deserves some attention. The rally never touched the lower line of the bigger elliott channel and still moving in an acceleration channel. This might indicate a wave 5 of (3) situation. The trend of the momentum is untouched so far.

DAX weekly chart - elliott channels

Trades - 10/04/2015

11:44 (GMT+1)
Closed my fx positions.

11:27 (GMT+1)

The DAX index got above the neckline and ATH. The daily momentum might create a bullish cross, which would indicate the continuation of the rally, but it doesn't necessary mean that price action can't pause or even retrace. So the big picture is still open and should look out for the correction channel on the daily time frame (it can be drawn 2 ways in my opinion) and a bull trap as wave B of flat/triangle. I think these patterns may be ruled out if the market will go above 12500. Then this wave B scenario has a very slight chance and the market will go for the next target zone on the monthly chart (DAX perspectives). But bear in mind that a monthly candle can absorb a lot of movement in either way and the market triggered a daily bullish slingshots.

DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts

The weekly chart also deserves some attention. The rally never touched the bigger elliott channel and still moving in an acceleration channel. This might indicate a wave 5 of (3) situation. The trend of the momentum is untouched so far.

DAX weekly chart - elliott channels

9:40 (GMT+1)

My long got stop out. I think the DAX might make a sideway correction today. I have EURUSD short from 1.06768 (sl now at 1.0655) and USDJYP long from 120.20 (opened yesterday, sl at 120.14). I think today I'm just gonna manage these positions.


8:40 (GMT+1)
Bought long at 12225. Sl moved to 12221. M15 bullish slingshot is triggered.

Trades - 09/04/2015

18:02 (GMT+1)
Closed my long at 12183.5.


17:42 (GMT+1)

This market is getting interesting. I have a long position which I opened at 17:23 (GMT+1). The price action is making a break out attempt from the correction channel (drawn on the 1 hour chart). If it will be successful it will be the base channel of the upside movement. The market is reaching the neckline of the inverse h&s pattern at this moment.

DAX - m15-h1-h4

15:50 (GMT+1)

I closed my dax long at 12128.5.The resistence is near and this market is still ranging and there is no evidence of break out yet. The market rallied from yesterday's low in a parallel channel, which suggests that this upside movement is part of a correction. 

The minimum target zone for the bullish cross on the 1 hour chart's RSI was reached. I can't rule out that the market will make a temporary top which should be at least a wave b of (x) and the wave c will fill the gap left open after the holiday break. That's just a thought, there is no sign of reversal so far. In case of a break out from the correction channel, the market might reach the neckline or even test ATH.

dax - m15-h1-h4 charts

15:45 (GMT+1)
DJI30 got stop out. 40 point (2R) in the pocket. DAX long's SL raised to 12108.

15:34 (GMT+1)
The U.S. opening looks awesome so far.

dax and dji30 - m15-h1-h1 charts

15:23 (GMT+1)
This might get interesting. TP at 18025

DJI30 - 1 hour chart

14:44 (GMT+1)
DJI30 longs closed. 38 point profit.

14:14 (GMT+1)
I just opened a long. The momentum on the 1 hour chart produced a bullish cross. Hopefully the test of the channel is finished and the bearish slingshot will be null soon.

DAX - M15-h1-h4 charts

14:10 (GMT+1)
I just got back. I opened a 2 long DJI30 on my cellphone. I'd like to see a test of the upper zone of the range.

DJI30 - 1 hour chart

10:28 (GMT+1)
I got stop out again. I'm gonna wait and see now...

10:05 (GMT+1)
I got stop out. I think this is a deep channel test. Opened another long. For continuation of the upside movement the 1 hour momentum shall create a bullish cross.

m15-h1-h4

9:27 (GMT+1)
My long is still on the market. I think this is a test of the correction channel. It might get trickier though and retrace a little deeper.

9:12 (GMT+1)
I opened a long position on my way. I hope this wave at least is going to attempt to reach the neckline of the inverse h&s and reach above Tuesday's high.

m15-h1-h4

Trades - 08/04/2015

18:37 (GMT+1)

Today was a very hectic day for me. I couldn't follow the market. Position got stop out. 

Bigger picture still hangs in the air. The minimum target for the expected wave B on the daily time frame has been reached already, but that doesn't necessary mean the price should reverse in a snap. I still think that the 4 hours and daily charts could offer bullish setups, especially until the market stays above last Friday's low.

14:02 (GMT+1)
I opened another long. The lower long's sl got raised. Today this market is still ranging.

m15-h1-h4

14:00 GMT+1
The hourly candle shows signs of reversal, but it is really weak yet.


13:05 GMT+1

My last long got stop out. The market is still moving in a correction channel. I opened a long because the price action bounced from the bottom line of this channel (drawn on the 1 hour chart). The gap is still open and the RSI of the 4 hours chart produced a bullish cross (while the 1 hour chart a bearish cross,. but it is not yet confirmed by the MA10/20). The higher time frame should override the smaller degree. This hour's candle will be important regarding the direction of the next wave. If the 4 hours trader join the long side then we shall see a reversal candle pattern on the hourly chart.

m15-h1-h4

10:09 GMT+1
Position got stop out. I reentered the market on the long side again. I give this scenario one more chance. I think the market should test at least the upper channel line drawn on the 15 minutes chart.

Since I started to type the market moved in my direction. I put both sl to ep.

m5-m15-h1 charts

8:22 GMT+1
Scaled out at 12120. Sl raised to 12084.

8:04 GMT+1

Opened a long át 12095.5. Sl at 12072.5.

Dax - 07/04/2015

21:27 (GMT+1)
The daily time frame triggered a bullish slingshot.

17:13 (GMT+1)
I gotta get going. I will be away from the computer for the rest of the day. I decided to close the rest of my long at 12115.

17:03 (GMT+1)
I'm expecting a price action similar to the January of 2015.

h4-d1 charts from 1st of April

16:32 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 12139.5.

16:23 (GMT+1)
I opened another long and I'm hoping that the dax will reach higher prices today. I'm expecting a tricky movement though, which I might have posted already last week about the similarity of the recent price action with the first weeks of january 2015.

m5-m15-h1

13:23 (GMT+1)
The higher long is closed at 12106.5. 2R in the pocket.

13:09 (GMT+1)
It looks like it was a good decision to lower my Sl back a little bit and to open another long. We'll see how this is going to work out because we are near to a resistance.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:32 (GMT+1)
Break even.

10:28 (GMT+1)
Raised my SL to 12065.5. 15 minutes chart offers a bullish slingshot opportunity.


10:21 (GMT+1)
I opened a long position.

m5-m15-h4 charts

9:39 (GMT+1)
The triangle pattern looks like it's gonna fail, at least it has a slight chance. The price action might get tricky again, but I try to hop on this inverse h&s pattern opportunity (not valid yet) and open a long position.

9:15 (GMT+1)
My shorts got stop out at entry points. This is what I pay close attention on the 4 hours chart.

h4 chart. Inverse h&s pattern is not valid yet.

9:06 (GMT+1)
This is the short setup I'm trying to play out. I just missed the scale out level, so now I'm just trying to sit on my hands. I'm still thinking this is part of a correction on the 1 and 4 hours chart (most likely a wave [e] of triangle) and after the patterm is done, I anticipate a break out attempt to reach ATH again.

m5-m15-h4

8:30 (GMT+1)
On the 1 hour chart this upside movement might be part of a triangle. Last Friday's price action got even trickier then I expected. I'm looking for a gap filling for today.

DAX Context - 03/04/2015

Yesterday"s price action was a little tricky. The momentum of the 1 and 4 hours charts are in the neutral zone, while the daily momentum is in the bullish support zone, but under the 9 period moving average. The daily time frame still offers a bullish slingshot opportunity, but it is not triggered yet. The MA10/20 channel still provides support.

Due to the holiday today will most likely be pretty much dead. I do not plan to open any position. I still anticipate at least one attempt to reach the ATH as part of a bigger correction, especially if the market stays above yesterday's low. I think it's time to be patient with the big picture and wait for the next week to see how the market will open after the holiday.

h1-h4-d1 charts