DAX - 18/09/2015

Yesterday's forecast is still intact. The market made a little trick during the FED decision, but no critical level was damaged by that. The context is still pretty much the same. The lower part of the range is almost reached. I expect at least and ending diagonal pattern at wave [c] position of a complex flat. The RSI on the 4 hour chart is about to hit the sustainable bearish zone, which could confirm the bearish bias. I still cannot rule out a retest of yesterday's high, but it has a really slight chance. So in my reading this market is bearish in short term, especially below the 10500 level resistance (need to pay attention at support levels of the bigger range though).

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 -h4 charts

DAX 17/09/2015

Just a quick drawing on what I think is more likely going to happen  if the support on the 4 hour chart will fall. I'm going to write some more comment on this scenario later on...

DAX (CFD) - m15 -  h1 -h4 charts

DAX 15/09/2015

The market is still ranging on smaller degree, but the 4 hours chart may show signs of a bearish opportunity though. The momentum failed to reach the sustainable bull zone and the RSI stopped at the top of the bearish support (and even get a little bit into a neutral zone white zone). Another important thing about this time frame is that the L/L and L/H series are converging with the RSI. 

A downside break out from the range shown on the 15 minutes and 1 hour chart would suggest that the bears on the 4 hours chart want to test the lower part of the bigger range. This would trigger at least a wave [c] of a really complex flat pattern. Due to the triangle shape, which was created last week, in this cases the wave [c] is either going to be an ending diagonal, or this small range shown on the 15 minutes chart is actually going to be a bearish (i)-(ii)-i-ii situation (instead of a bullish (i)-(ii)-i-ii series, which I wrote about yesterday). 

I can't really commit to either side on higher time frame until the market keeps ranging and only try to find smaller degree setups.

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 - h4 charts

Dax 14/09/2015

Update: 11:32
 Looking for higher prices against in a potential 1-2-i-ii situation. If break out will occur I will use trailing stop instead of the a TP. This could be very a juicy upside movement if the pattern will be confirmed by the PA.

DAX (CFD) - 15 minutes chart showing potential 1-2-i-ii situation.

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I think that the index is bullish above 10080. I post a picture of the context I made during the weekend. Full update in English will be posted later on.

DAX (CFD) 

The 10080 level hold and a higher low was created. Higher time frames are still bullish in my reading, except the momentum of the daily and the 4 hours (they are at the bearish resistance at the moment), but the momentum on the 4 hours chart has produced a converging H/H-H/L series. I still can't rule out that this is gonna be an even more complex flat, but as I mentioned in my previous posts this price action can be labeled as a complete LD+flat pattern. In this case the price must stay above the red line shown on the 1 hour chart and needs to close above the range soon. If the red line will fail to hold the price then I will start to think the market needs at least a bigger correction, at least a more complex flat where the wave [c] will be an ending diagonal. These are just some thoughts. The market has shown no conformation in either way so far.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart

DAX (CFD) - 4 hour chart

DAX - 10/09/2015

I nice impulse is most likely completed from yesterday's high. The gap was closed, so the alternate option of a complex flat for wave [b] or [ii] is alive. The structure can be labeled as a complete running flat pattern, but the market can still do some more tricks. My idea for today is to hit an ideal retrace level of the preceding drop. There is a bullish slingshot opportunity on the 5 minutes chart, which is not triggered yet, but even if it get triggered most likely it won't be strong enough to push the price to target zone even. So I wait for a pull back and then a reversal signal for a long trade especially above the red line shown on the 5 minutes chart. If the market will go below today's low then I will look for a short setup with the target zone of 10k or below. (Since I started to write the post the market excluded the bullish slingshot setup)

DAX (CFD) - 1 minute, 5 minutes and 15 minutes charts

DAX (CFD) - context of the drop and primary target zone for today

So this would be my short scenario. If the market goes below the red line then most likely a can anticipate a wave (c) of [b]/[ii] and a test of the lower area of the range.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart with complex flat option

I have to notice that the momentums on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts are getting interesting. We can a series of higher highs and higher lows converging with the RSI, which opens up a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) interpretation. This is just a thought in the back of my mind...

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour and 4 hours chart with [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) option

DAX context - 09/09/2015

This August has brought very volatile market conditions. The sell off didn't surprise me as you can see in my previous post, I couldn't rule out a bigger drop (dax ld+flat). This flat can be drawn a little more complex, but I think it doesn't really matter. At that time the market was in an absolute 50-50 situation in my reading. After this the market first moved upward but failed to pierce through the critical level needed to trigger the continuation of an immediate long trend. 

I decided to update the context because the drop so far doesn't look like an impulse wave. I can't exclude a 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation though, but right now this drop looks corrective.

If you take a look at the monthly chart, you can see the drop stopped at multiple support zones. The 38.2 Fibonacci level, the upper line of the base channel and the previous wave (IV) zone was right there. We saw the first break below the trend line created by the RSI and the momentum came down to the bullish support zone. This movement is pretty much equal in points and time with the possible wave II (see boxes). So if the market wants another high or test of the high this is the place for it. Just a thought on what if the market takes out the low (and especially if it closes below that level on weekly of monthly chart). then I think a trend reversal is most likely and at least a bigger correction should develop with the target level of 8500 as the end of wave 3 of (A).

DAX (CFD) monthly chart

The weekly chart shows that this downside movement didn't reach the ideal Fibonacci extension level for a wave 3, thus suggesting that this is going to be either an A-B-C, or 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation. The only problem with this interpretation is the corrective channel, which was broken. In this case always have to watch out for a channel test.  This is just a warning sign so far that should make you think other possibilities as well. But I think this happens quite often after a leading diagonal followed by a flat correction. (Another thing to consider is that the monthly candle didn't close outside of the channel and a monthly line chart also didn't confirm a break of the channel yet.)

DAX (CFD) weekly chart

Since the local low the market created a range, which was pierced upward by today's opening. This tells me that at least a wave (c) of [ii] can be expected, but can't rule out even higher prices though, especially if today the market will create a runaway gap on the daily chart. The momentum on the daily charts shows signs of climax at low. If the gap will stay open, the market should reach at least the 9700 level this week, but in this case the market should ideally test the 11k as a significant Fibonacci and psychological level.

DAX (CFD) daily chart

I show you an alternate version on the 4 hours chart. Yesterday the market was at the top of the range. I could count a full flat correction, but the upside movement didn't yet confirm that. Although today the market tries to break out of the range this bull trap is still an option. The rest of the week will decide that I can rule this out or not. Today's price action will be crucial, because a runaway gap would a nice reference point for the bulls.

DAX (CFD)  4 hours chart

I also want show you a 5 minutes chart from yesterday. This is what I wanted to play out from the context of the 4 hours chart. I expected a pullback and a zig zag pattern to unfold to the zone shown on the chart after a possible leading diagonal. I wanted to shot the upward wave after a higher low, but I missed the entry, but Today's opening ruled out the LD shown on this chart, and the whole complex flat idea is questioned as well.

DAX (CFD) 5 minutes chart