Wednesday, December 7, 2016

DAX - 07/12/2016

The top of the range got pierced and this suggests that the market is most likely on its way to the target zone of the daily time frame  as C of (Y). Right now my primary wave count is that the DAX will make a [iii] of C that will ideally end around 11500-11600.  Top lines of the parallel channels should behave as resistance, but if not, the bulls may go wild. I think now it's a good situation to hold the long position at least for a week or so.We'll see. 

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart
I opened my long yesterday at 17:06. The momentum on the 1 hour chart reached the sustainable bullish zone, and the structure of the rally suggested continuation. My context was set and there was a continuation signal candle on the 15 minutes chart.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

DAX - 06/12/2106

Update: 17:16
SL closed my short @ 10730,5. Looks like the bulls are still on the run.

Monday, December 5, 2016

Monday, November 14, 2016

DAX - 01/12/2016

Update: 14:27

Lowered my Sl @10569. MA10/20 channel should be resistance.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

DAX - 14/11/2016

The rally from the lower part of the range has already reached the top of it. My long position got sopped out @ 10350. I expected a lower pull back before getting back to rally mode.

Now it is neutral that price action slows down a bit in a bullish interpretation as well. So I decided to open a counter-trend short position on a possible bull trap situation. EP was @ 10766. My context time-frame for this setup is the 15 minutes chart and BeSS signal was on the 5 minutes chart. This wave [C] (of (2)?) could easily form a running pattern and thus missing my target zone by a lot. That is why I manage my short with a relatively tight trailing SL. Sl right now @ 10730. Of course I cannot rule out that the local top might be part of a bigger bull trap, but my primer wave count of the market is bullish and I expect at least a C of (Y) wave ideally to the 11200 zone.

DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

DAX - 09/11/2016

The gap down reached the support line of the previous corrective channel, then the market started to rally right away. The range on the daily and weekly chart is still intact in my opinion, but the movement from the middle of August may be a completed complex (most likely) flat correction. My context remained the same until this range is still intact. Today's daily candle will be crucial. If it will be a full body bullish candle, then the bullish continuation is likely, especially that the momentum reached the support zone.
DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart - Market is testing upper line of the parallel channel 

I opened a long this morning at 8:16 (GMT+2) with  EP @ 10108. Right now I managing with a mechanical candle trailing stop on the 15 minutes chart. SL@10302. My plan is to scale out at the top of the range, around 10575. We'll see how this is going to pan out. If the range gets broken down then I will start to think of a bigger downside movement which may aim the next support zone (9200).

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart - Correction may be completed but range is still intact.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

NZDUSD - 11/10/2016

 It looks like the decline of the Kiwi continued from last week and aiming 0.695 critical support level. The drop from the 0.784 top so far looks like a three wave pattern. Funny thing is that above 0.695 I cannot rule out the correction because the Fibonacci 161.8 expansion level (usual expansion of a wave 3) is right there. 
NZDUSD - Daily chart

Last Friday's price action looks like a nice pause on the daily time frame. The bulls failed to make a reversal. Yesterday there was bearish slingshot momentum configuration setup on the 1 hour chart, which was followed by a nice signal candle. The slingshot was a strong 8 candle setup and occurred in lower blue zone which is the first support zone in a bear trend.

NZDUSD - 1 hour chart
This setup offered high return with low risk. I opened a short position at 18:18 (GMT+2). EP was @ 0.7133 Sl was 0.7149 (above the left leg of the slingshot). My first target zone is 0.701. This is very I plan to scale out 1/3 of the position. If the decline continues to the 0.695 support level I will scale out another 1/3 of the position.

NZDUSD - 4 hours chart
The higher time frames also supported this bearish setup.  The momentum of the 4 hours chart reached the sustainable bearish zone and pull back only pushed the RSI up to the first bearish support zone. After the setup got triggered the market kept declining and reached a new low. I pulled my Sl lower to 0.7115 which is just a little bit below of what I think is wave [1] of (v) of [iii].