Thursday, April 30, 2015

DAX context - 30/04/2015

The market exceeded my target zone and reached the bottom of a correction channel (shown on the daily chart). The bigger picture is getting a bit shaky. I had to reconsider my wave count regarding the pattern (triangle wave 4 - see daily chart) reaching ATH. This is also made the Elliott channel modified. But even if this is correct, the lower line of the Elliott channel was pierced. So this is definitely a warning sign. Another concerning sign could be a bearish cross on the weekly RSI, but the week is still on, so I have to wait until next week for this.

Due to the rule of alternation I think the downward movement will continue today from the zone shown on the 4 hours chart. The small time frame candles are too big to pull the trigger on a setup and I'd have to take bigger risk then I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna wait a little more to pull the trigger on the setup.
DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

DAX and trades - 29/04/2015

17:04 (GMT+1)
Sl closed my short at 3650

16:40 (GMT+1)
The first wave of the drop didn't reach my target and I missed the exit on smaller time frame. Lowered my Sl to 3659.5. I plan to trail the MA20 line if the decline will continue.
EURO STOXX50: 1 hour chart
14:38 (GMT+1)
Trailing stop is on. I hope the channel will break right now.
EURO STOXX50: 4 hours chart
14:33 (GMT+1)
Sl lowered to 3712.

13:30 (GMT+1)
The DAX is starting to look bearish to me concerning near term price action. The only "immediate" bullish outlook is a flat wave [ii] pattern. But if the market break below to yesterday's low then this can be ruled out too. I expect a tricky range and a bigger flat wave pattern as wave B of (4). This is just a thought. Further confirmation is needed to deal with this context.
DAX: h1 -h4 - daily charts
I opened a short on EUSTX50. My primary target is around 3600s.
EUSTOXX50 - daily chart

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

dax - 28/04/2015

12:57 (GMT+1)
TP was hit. Now it's wait and see for me...So far the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart held the drop in a parallel channel.
DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts


12:34 (GMT+1)
It looks like the price action couldn't form a decent impulsive wave. The minimum target was reached more like in a 3 wave pattern, although I cannot rule out the possibility that the index is just gathering some more strength in a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) pattern. The momentum on the 4 hours chart hit the bearish support zone and couldn't reach the bullish territory, while the RSI on the 1 hour is about the form a bearish cross. The channel shown on the 15 minutes chart must break to confirm at least a correction of yesterday's price action.
DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts

Monday, April 27, 2015

DAX - 27/04/2015

16:52
Rest of the long is closed át 12021.

14:50 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 11984.5

14:43 (GMT+1)
The price action is on the break regarding the 1 and 4 hours chart. I think higher prices is still reachable (shown on 4 hours chart) even if the bottom wasn't an end of flat C wave.
DAX: m5 - m15 - h4 charts
12:26 (GMT+1)
Sl raised to 11798, then to 11805. Scaled out 1/2 at 11838.5. Trailing stop is on.

11:50 (GMT+1)
I'm paying close attention to a bullish opportunity. Different scenarios are still hanging in the air. No critical support was broken last week so I'll try to play bullish setups above that line. The channel on the 5 minutes chart is broken and I think the 1 hour chart shows a very chaotic leading diagonal and flat patterns. I think the higher channel line shown on the 1 hour chart is a reachable target zone for today. We'll see how this works out.
DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts


Friday, April 24, 2015

trades - 24/04/2015

10:50 (GMT+1)
Scaled out 1/3 at 11876. Sl raised to 11800.

10:38 (GMT+1)
I think the index made a leading diagonal (shown on the 15 minutes chart). I expect higher prices for today and at least a hit of the 161.8 fibonacchi level and a backtest of the higher line of the channel (shown on the 1 hour chart). The market already hit the higher line of the channel. Now let's see if it will try to break out.
DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Trades - 23/04/2015

11:41 (GMT+1)
Position was closed by the SL. The market still moves in a downward channel, but so far the lower line provided support. If this is gonna continue then   the "immediate" bullish scenario I drew up a couple of days ago will be ruled out. It's a wait and see situation for me, because if the market will go below this week's low then at least 11500 should be reached and have to rethink the wave count (and may be the wave degree too.).

11:41 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11765.

11:24 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11740.


10:55 (GMT+1)
I'm back in front of my computer again. I didn't expect this deep retrace (if it will stay a retrace). I opened a long on a 5 minutes setup (base channel break out attempt). I think the index is gathering some strength. The hourly momentum is still on the edge of bullish support zone. We'll see how this is gonna work out.
DAX: m5 - m15 - 1 hour charts
9:17
Sl Closed position

9:10
Scaled out 1/3 át 11927.

9:01
Opened 3 long (cfd). Ep 11874, Sl 11860

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

DAX context and trades - 22/04/2015

20:27
Closed long at 11910.

18:57
Break even.

18:32 (GMT+1)
Last trade today.
DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts
17:37 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. I got too agressive. The entry was too early. Now I wait and see.

17:32 (GMT+1)
Another long opened.
DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts
17:08 (GMT+1)
Closed position at 11891.

16:45 (GMT+1)
Opened a long.
DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts
15:48 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Broke even.


15:02 (GMT+1)
The market moved 2R. Scaled out 1/3 at 11932.

14:58 (GMT+1)
Break even.

14:42 (GMT+1)
I hit a 15 minutes long signal.
DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts
12:02 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out.

11:35 (GMT+1)
I opened 3 long (CFD). I expect at least a backtest today's high or even a little higher for today.
DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts
The market filled the gap (see 4 hours chart). The momentum is forming a bullish cross on this time frame, but it needs to get confirmed by the MA10/20 to be valid. The RSI on the daily time frame might found support, and the weekly chart suggests that this market needs at least one more diverging high that would probable make the end of 3 of (3) on the monthly chart.
DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts

Monday, April 20, 2015

DAX - 20/04/2015

Unfortunately I'm down with illness. I'm not gonna trade until I'm 100% healthy again. I just can't focus. I'm only posting a picture of what I think is the most probable scenario in my reading. The first crucial sign would be breaking out of the Elliott channel drawn on the 1 hour chart. We'll see...
DAX: h1 - daily - weekly charts


Friday, April 17, 2015

DAX context and trades - 17/04/2015

Higher Time Frames:
Today's sell-off is still going on. So I decided to take a look at higher time frames. The weekly chart shows a nice Elliott channel and the price action hit the lower line. The momentum on the daily charts and above is still bullish, but the bears still have room especially considering this expanded flat correction pattern. Keep attention for signs of climax on the 4 hours chart and the unorthodox - often used today in Hungary :) - elliott channel (2 to 4 parallel to 1 to 3).

So the market once again reached and ideal level in many ways (correction channel, Fibonacci expansions and minimum Fibonacci retracement level), but this doesn't mean that the price action will stop right here. It is just an ideal place for it, we'll have to see and wait for reversal signals to trade swing long.
DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts
14:42 (GMT+1)
I was really off with my last trade and  it got stopped out. Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch this nice drop. Too bad because I was really expecting at least a wave [v] of C. 

The intensity of this drop suggests that at least a flat C wave is going on. The sharp downside movement makes it difficult to determine the current wave degree. In my opinion the most likely scenario is that the extension of wave [iii] went on and almost reached 423,6 Fibonacchi ratio. The max level for a flat C on the daily chart is around 11400. The MA10 line on the weekly chart is getting really near, not to mention the 38.2 Fibonacchi retracement level. Above the aforementioned level I still expect at least one more backtest of the ATH, but for me this is neither the time and place for opening a short, nor trying to catch an end of flat C. Especially after reading the smaller degree wrong. My confidence in my trading decisions needs to be restored.

10:38 (GMT+1)
I opened 2 longs. I'm anticipating higher price as part of a correction. This is a little shaky though, because I'm not so sure that wave (b) is done. We'll see...
DAX: m15 - h1 - daily charts
This downside movement could be the end of a wave [iii]. This impulse wave is not a basic one, because the 3rd wave got extended. Thus the optimal level for a wave [iv] and the bottom line of the base channel got lower. The ideal retrace level for a wave [iv] right now is between 12000 and 12050, but due to the rule of alternation this correction is more likely to be a complex one (comparing to wave [ii]: flat, triangle or a combination pattern. So far there is no sign of reversal and because today is Friday I'm only planning to make quick scalps if I'll have the chance.
DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Trades - 16/04/2015

17:48 (GMT+1)
Unfortunately the reenter. I had a short position that got stop out. My tp was 11960.. My rhythm was off today  I'm not gonna make more trades today. Instead I'll update the context.

12:29 (GMT+1)
Closed my shorts at 12050. I'm gonna reenter if the market retest the base channel (h1-h4).

12:00 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Looks like the short side will prevail. Opened 2 shorts. Target zone: gap fill.
DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts
11:21 (GMT+1)
I bought 2 long. I'm planning to trade a ranging market and a test of the higher channel shown on the 1 hour chart. I put a trailing stop on the position.
DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts


DAX context -16/04/2015

Update: 17:52 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level. The gap is filled, base channel of this downside movement is broken and 161.8 Fibonnachi level is right around here. So if the market will produce an ideal basic impulse pattern then this level should provide temporary support. On the 4 hours chart the momentum is in a sustainable bearish zone, while the 1 hour is getting near to a point where signs of climax could appear. The 15 minutes chart shows a small divergence, but it's not enough yet for indicating a start of a wave [iv]. If the market finds support then ideally a retracement to the 38.2 Fibonacci level should be the end of wave [iv] which is right now located around the 12100s level. We'll see how the rest of the trading day will go on and hopefully tomorrow directions of the smaller time frames will be pretty much clear.
DAX: m15-h4-d1 charts
The market reached 2 of 3 goals I've expected. First the neckline, then the bigger channel. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel (shown on h4-d1 charts). If this channel breaks then most likely the market will go deeper then a gap fill and an intermediate triagnle or flat C wave could unfold from this situation. The momentum crosses of 4 hours and daily RSI are displaying different possible setups, so confirmation is needed before pulling a trigger in either way.
DAX: h1-h4-daily charts

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

DAX context - 14/04/2015

Yesterday was really busy for me and I just couldn't follow the market. Today will be pretty much the same for me, so I just update the context and what I think is important to look out.

DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts
The market reached the level I've expected yesterday, but not in the way as I thought it would. The momentum of the 1 hour chart has created a bearish hook and the setup was triggered and the minimum target is already reached. 

The channels shown on the 4 hours and daily charts should provide support. The daily chart is about to create a bullish cross on the RSI, but it is not valid yet. The rally stopped at an ideal level in many ways so patience is really the best thing to have regarding long term expectation. This is still an open question because the market is between different scenarios at the moment. There is no confirmation  yet for an intra-day or swing trade in either way. If the acceleration channel will break then I think the DAX will go for at least a test of the neckline, but more likely test of the bigger parallel channel and even possibly a gap fill.

Monday, April 13, 2015

trades - 13/04/2015

10:55 (GMT+1)
My entry was badly timed. Strike 1.

10:54 (GMT+1)
In case of a new ATH I will try to join the long side, aiming for 12500s level.

10:49 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level (fibonacci and top of the channel). If support breaks on the 1 hour I think the price should drop at least to the lower channel line. I'd like to see a test of the neckline.
 Sl is raised ot 12365.5, tp is at 12230.5.
Dax: m5-m15 h1 charts


Friday, April 10, 2015

DAX - Context 10/04/2015

I've decided to put the context in a separte post and update a little bit wiht another chart.
The DAX index got above the neckline and ATH. The daily momentum might create a bullish cross, which would indicate the continuation of the rally, but it doesn't necessary mean that price action can't pause or even retrace. So the big picture is still open and should look out for the correction channel on the daily time frame (it can be drawn 2 ways in my opinion) and a bull trap as wave B of flat/triangle. I think these patterns may be ruled out if the market will go above 12500. Then this wave B scenario has a very slight chance and the market will go for the next target zone on the monthly chart (DAX perspectives). But bear in mind that a monthly candle can absorb a lot of movement in either way and the market triggered a daily bullish slingshots.
DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts
The price action is nearing to the correction channel on the 4 hours chart and almost at the first ideal Fibonacci level. The momentum reached the bull zone but the candle is not closed yet. The bias remain bullish above the 12120-12020 zone on this time frame and above.
DAX - 4 hours chart
The weekly chart also deserves some attention. The rally never touched the lower line of the bigger elliott channel and still moving in an acceleration channel. This might indicate a wave 5 of (3) situation. The trend of the momentum is untouched so far.
DAX weekly chart - elliott channels

Trades - 10/04/2015

11:44 (GMT+1)
Closed my fx positions.

11:27 (GMT+1)
The DAX index got above the neckline and ATH. The daily momentum might create a bullish cross, which would indicate the continuation of the rally, but it doesn't necessary mean that price action can't pause or even retrace. So the big picture is still open and should look out for the correction channel on the daily time frame (it can be drawn 2 ways in my opinion) and a bull trap as wave B of flat/triangle. I think these patterns may be ruled out if the market will go above 12500. Then this wave B scenario has a very slight chance and the market will go for the next target zone on the monthly chart (DAX perspectives). But bear in mind that a monthly candle can absorb a lot of movement in either way and the market triggered a daily bullish slingshots.
DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts
The weekly chart also deserves some attention. The rally never touched the bigger elliott channel and still moving in an acceleration channel. This might indicate a wave 5 of (3) situation. The trend of the momentum is untouched so far.
DAX weekly chart - elliott channels
9:40 (GMT+1)

My long got stop out. I think the DAX might make a sideway correction today. I have EURUSD short from 1.06768 (sl now at 1.0655) and USDJYP long from 120.20 (opened yesterday, sl at 120.14). I think today I'm just gonna manage these positions.


8:40 (GMT+1)
Bought long at 12225. Sl moved to 12221. M15 bullish slingshot is triggered.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Trades - 09/04/2015

18:02 (GMT+1)
Closed my long at 12183.5.


17:42 (GMT+1)
This market is getting interesting. I have a long position which I opened at 17:23 (GMT+1). The price action is making a break out attempt from the correction channel (drawn on the 1 hour chart). If it will be successful it will be the base channel of the upside movement. The market is reaching the neckline of the inverse h&s pattern at this moment.
DAX - m15-h1-h4

15:50 (GMT+1)
I closed my dax long at 12128.5.The resistence is near and this market is still ranging and there is no evidence of break out yet. The market rallied from yesterday's low in a parallel channel, which suggests that this upside movement is part of a correction. 

The minimum target zone for the bullish cross on the 1 hour chart's RSI was reached. I can't rule out that the market will make a temporary top which should be at least a wave b of (x) and the wave c will fill the gap left open after the holiday break. That's just a thought, there is no sign of reversal so far. In case of a break out from the correction channel, the market might reach the neckline or even test ATH.
dax - m15-h1-h4 charts
15:45 (GMT+1)
DJI30 got stop out. 40 point (2R) in the pocket. DAX long's SL raised to 12108.

15:34 (GMT+1)
The U.S. opening looks awesome so far.
dax and dji30 - m15-h1-h1 charts
15:23 (GMT+1)
This might get interesting. TP at 18025
DJI30 - 1 hour chart
14:44 (GMT+1)
DJI30 longs closed. 38 point profit.

14:14 (GMT+1)
I just opened a long. The momentum on the 1 hour chart produced a bullish cross. Hopefully the test of the channel is finished and the bearish slingshot will be null soon.
DAX - M15-h1-h4 charts

14:10 (GMT+1)
I just got back. I opened a 2 long DJI30 on my cellphone. I'd like to see a test of the upper zone of the range.
DJI30 - 1 hour chart
10:28 (GMT+1)
I got stop out again. I'm gonna wait and see now...

10:05 (GMT+1)
I got stop out. I think this is a deep channel test. Opened another long. For continuation of the upside movement the 1 hour momentum shall create a bullish cross.
m15-h1-h4
9:27 (GMT+1)
My long is still on the market. I think this is a test of the correction channel. It might get trickier though and retrace a little deeper.

9:12 (GMT+1)
I opened a long position on my way. I hope this wave at least is going to attempt to reach the neckline of the inverse h&s and reach above Tuesday's high.
m15-h1-h4

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Trades - 08/04/2015

18:37 (GMT+1)
Today was a very hectic day for me. I couldn't follow the market. Position got stop out. 

Bigger picture still hangs in the air. The minimum target for the expected wave B on the daily time frame has been reached already, but that doesn't necessary mean the price should reverse in a snap. I still think that the 4 hours and daily charts could offer bullish setups, especially until the market stays above last Friday's low.

14:02 (GMT+1)
I opened another long. The lower long's sl got raised. Today this market is still ranging.
m15-h1-h4
14:00 GMT+1
The hourly candle shows signs of reversal, but it is really weak yet.


13:05 GMT+1
My last long got stop out. The market is still moving in a correction channel. I opened a long because the price action bounced from the bottom line of this channel (drawn on the 1 hour chart). The gap is still open and the RSI of the 4 hours chart produced a bullish cross (while the 1 hour chart a bearish cross,. but it is not yet confirmed by the MA10/20). The higher time frame should override the smaller degree. This hour's candle will be important regarding the direction of the next wave. If the 4 hours trader join the long side then we shall see a reversal candle pattern on the hourly chart.
m15-h1-h4
10:09 GMT+1
Position got stop out. I reentered the market on the long side again. I give this scenario one more chance. I think the market should test at least the upper channel line drawn on the 15 minutes chart.

Since I started to type the market moved in my direction. I put both sl to ep.
m5-m15-h1 charts
8:22 GMT+1
Scaled out at 12120. Sl raised to 12084.

8:04 GMT+1
Opened a long át 12095.5. Sl at 12072.5.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Dax - 07/04/2015

21:27 (GMT+1)
The daily time frame triggered a bullish slingshot.

17:13 (GMT+1)
I gotta get going. I will be away from the computer for the rest of the day. I decided to close the rest of my long at 12115.

17:03 (GMT+1)
I'm expecting a price action similar to the January of 2015.
h4-d1 charts from 1st of April
16:32 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 12139.5.

16:23 (GMT+1)
I opened another long and I'm hoping that the dax will reach higher prices today. I'm expecting a tricky movement though, which I might have posted already last week about the similarity of the recent price action with the first weeks of january 2015.
m5-m15-h1
13:23 (GMT+1)
The higher long is closed at 12106.5. 2R in the pocket.

13:09 (GMT+1)
It looks like it was a good decision to lower my Sl back a little bit and to open another long. We'll see how this is going to work out because we are near to a resistance.
m5-m15-h1 charts
10:32 (GMT+1)
Break even.

10:28 (GMT+1)
Raised my SL to 12065.5. 15 minutes chart offers a bullish slingshot opportunity.


10:21 (GMT+1)
I opened a long position.
m5-m15-h4 charts
9:39 (GMT+1)
The triangle pattern looks like it's gonna fail, at least it has a slight chance. The price action might get tricky again, but I try to hop on this inverse h&s pattern opportunity (not valid yet) and open a long position.

9:15 (GMT+1)
My shorts got stop out at entry points. This is what I pay close attention on the 4 hours chart.
h4 chart. Inverse h&s pattern is not valid yet.
9:06 (GMT+1)
This is the short setup I'm trying to play out. I just missed the scale out level, so now I'm just trying to sit on my hands. I'm still thinking this is part of a correction on the 1 and 4 hours chart (most likely a wave [e] of triangle) and after the patterm is done, I anticipate a break out attempt to reach ATH again.
m5-m15-h4
8:30 (GMT+1)
On the 1 hour chart this upside movement might be part of a triangle. Last Friday's price action got even trickier then I expected. I'm looking for a gap filling for today.

Friday, April 3, 2015

DAX Context - 03/04/2015

Yesterday"s price action was a little tricky. The momentum of the 1 and 4 hours charts are in the neutral zone, while the daily momentum is in the bullish support zone, but under the 9 period moving average. The daily time frame still offers a bullish slingshot opportunity, but it is not triggered yet. The MA10/20 channel still provides support.

Due to the holiday today will most likely be pretty much dead. I do not plan to open any position. I still anticipate at least one attempt to reach the ATH as part of a bigger correction, especially if the market stays above yesterday's low. I think it's time to be patient with the big picture and wait for the next week to see how the market will open after the holiday.
h1-h4-d1 charts