Friday, October 7, 2016

NZDUSD - 07/10/2016

My short position got stopped out @ 0.7177 with +107 pip. 

NZDUSD - 4 hour chart
The kiwi pierced below the mutual target zone (marked with small blue rectangle) and reversed from there. Until this moment both bear and bull scenario pretty much had the same road. Now the NZDUSD reached an intersection and most likely we'll see the direction in the next 1 or 2 weeks. I decided to rule out the complex flat scenario on the 4 hours time frame mentioned in my earlier posts. 

So my bearish version suggests that an ending diagonal pattern in wave C position is completed and a price will turn down to at least 0.632 level. My (down to earth) bullish version says that the ending diagonal is incomplete and the decline from the 0.784x top is a correction and a new high will come.

It's important to note that the price only break below the first support level of 0.72 and looks like the market is testing it right now. The key level still lays around 0.697X. The momentum of the daily time frame is at the bullish support zone, but I think the bulls lack the support of the higher time frames and below the daily time frame the momentum looks really bearish. Thus I will prefer the bearish context and next week I will try to seek signaled short setup if the PA stays below the 0.731 high.

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