Trades - 25/03/2015

17:20 Context:
The bearish bias on the smaller degree was proved to be right, but the RSI on the 1 hour chart and above still above the bullish support zone. I can't exclude the possiblity that the price action from the ATH is a triangle pattern as wave 4, but at the moment I would give more chance for a  triangle in wave [x] of 4, although the middle of the correction looks like a flat (as shown in the earlier post). This is the main reason I closed my short position at the primary target zone.

Even if this drop from 12030sh level is part of a wave (c) of [y] of 4 as I originally thought, I anticipate a complex and fragmented wave (c), where high pullback in smaller degree might occur, but these pullbacks would disappear in higher time frame candles (e.g.: 4 hours candle). There is one important thing to note: the daily time frame broke the MA10 line. A close below this might open the way for the price to touch the MA20.

So in this situation I think the best I could do with 1 contract (CFD) is to exit at the primary target zone and wait for the picture to clear out a bit.

h1-h4-D1

 

16:59 (GMT+1) 
Closed position at 11880. Context will be updated later on.

16:10 (GMT+1) 
I put my SL to break even at 11953. I am waiting for the channel-test to play out. Hopefully my position will live on.

15:41 (GMT+1) 
Due to the larger then usual risk and my busy day, I decided to lower my SL to 11972.  The price bounced back from the lower channel on 15 minutes chart. For continuation of the downside movement this channel must be broken and ideally needs to be tested. I put a trailing stop on the position. We'll see how this setup will play out.

15:25 (GMT+1) 
I had to leave for a while and I just got back. The 1 hour chart is showing a bearish cross on the RSI and it would be good if the MA10/20 would make a cross too. I'm paying close attention to the channel on the 15 minutes chart. Breaking this channel would signal the continuation of the downside movement.

As I was typing the update, a 5 minutes signal occurred and I opened a short position. Minimum target zone is a bit under today's low, but I can see potential to reach even lower prices today, but in both case it is necessary to stay below this local high shown on the 5 minutes chart.

m5-m15-h1

12:55 (GMT+1) 
1 hour chart ideal fibo level (161.8) is nearing which is also a support zone. I closed the position at 11902.

12:47 (GMT+1) 
Lowered my SL to 11935.

12:32 (GMT+1) 
I entered again on the short side, although it is not yet clear that the channel test is done.

m5-m15-h1

12:16 (GMT+1)  
I closed the position at 11949. Now I'm waiting how channel test will work out. I plan to get back on the bearish side if the price action gets below today's low.

12:01 (GMT+1)  
This is actually would be a good time and place for scaling out the position but I only have 1 contract (CFD). I decided to sit on my hands and wait what is going to happen. I expect a test of the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart.

11:56 (GMT+1) 
Price action is really fragmented, so I try to follow the market on 5 minutes chart and above. I'm paying close attention to the MA10/20 channel on 5 minutes chart, the base channel shown on the 15 minutes chart, and the RSI on the 1 hour chart. The moving averages on the RSI (1 hour chart) might produce a bearish cross which would make the smaller degree bearish case stronger. 

m5-m15-h1

11:27 (GMT+1) 
Market moved 1R so I put my SL to break even.

11:21 (GMT+1)
I lowered my SL to 11990. The price action on the 1 minute chart is rather showing correction signs but the momentum still stayed in the sustainable bearish zone.

11:10 (GMT+1)
I just got in front of the computer and decided to enter the market on the short side, although it may be a little too soon. I still think that yesterday's price action was part of a correction and I still anticipate that the sideway channel will hold on for a while. My primary target zone for today is 11860. The momentum on the hourly and 4 hours charts are still in neutral zone and it is necessary to break down today's low to null a close bullish slingshot for the bearish bias to be intact. We'll see how this is gonna pan out.