DAX update - 09/02/2016

I didn't have the time and energy to take care of this blog during the year, so I decided to start with a short update on the big picture.

DAX - monthly chart - RSI and channels

Almost a year ago I posted an update on the context of DAX30.

I think the market shifted into that bigger correction regarding the monthly chart. The first part - wave A of (4) - of this bigger correction has developed and reached the target level of 8500. The drop was contained within a corrective channel.  After this the market so far made a 3 waves looking formation, because the price action is yet contained by another corrective channel (closer view on the weekly chart). So right now the DAX reached an intersection.

DAX30 (CFD) - weekly chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

Because the RSI on the monthly chart it is more likely that market should reach higher price, but a little correction on the daily and 4 hours chart is more likely need before that. I think a successful test of the upper channel line of the previous correction (see it on the weekly chart) would be a good indication of bull continuation context, and at least a higher price level for wave B or X of (4). I'm currently waiting for a confirmation of the L/H-L/L convergence on the RSI (4 hours chart) before entering on the short side. I think wave (x) was a flat correction, but I need more proof before opening a position. So if it gets confirmed, the short trade would be counter-trend. So I would put my TP around the 10300s level. 

Update: 17:06 (GMT+2)

The above mentioned convergence is pretty much ruled out.