Monday, September 19, 2016

weekly outlook - 19/09/2016

I had a long weekend so I try to make up this absence. I'll try to post update on more instrument during the day.

The medium channel on the weekly chart so far held price above. EWP structural support is also approximately lays right here. It is key to the bull to keep the price above this support level, because if this support breaks impulsively then the price most likely will test the next support zone or may be even the lower part of the bigger parallel channel. It's crucial to note that the smallest channel is broken and the market may retest this right now, but this needs confirmation. The RSI not yet reached sustainable bull zone.
DJI30 (CFD) - weekly chart
The momentum of the daily chart reached the bearish zone then retraced to support zone. This shows me that the price action can easily fold into an impulsive wave and at least a breakdown from a bearish triangle can be expected if the pattern gets confirmed.

DJI30 (CFD) - daily chart
On smaller time frame the price action looks like it's forming a triangle which is not yet complete. Triangles can only be in wave 4, wave B or wave X position. But it's important to remember that 1-2-i-ii patterns can form that looks like a triangle as well. This is why it's important to wait out the break of the kex levels. This could  determine my context.
DJI30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

My original context looks Ok, but it still might be a little bit questionable. I think the market made a nice little trick with that sharp wave (A) of [4], but this needs more confirmation. 

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart
Usually wave [4] retraces around 38.2% of the preceding wave, but that wave (A) retraced 61.8% by itself. This is always a warning sign for me and whenever something like this occurs I try to come up with alternate versions. 

The rule of alternation suggested that it was more like that wave [4] should be a rather time consuming corrective pattern. Wave [2] was quite short especially if you look it at the 4 hour time frame. I can hardly box it on this time frame and I deliberately made wider so price ranges of corrections can be compared.

As you can see wave [4] had pretty much the same price range (see blue boxes) but it consumed a whole lot more time. This context of course is only valid above 10140 (EWP maximum structural level for a flat c) but below 10246 this wave count gets really shaky. The price is still at the lower part of daily/weekly range and the RSI of the daily time frame is still at support. 

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart
For opening a swing long for at least I need a nice setup and signal ideally above the MA10/20 channel shown on the 4 hours chart.






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