DAX Context - 19/11/2015

Full post will be updated later on this week, right now I just post an image of the main idea.

DAX (CFD) - Weekly - Daily - 4 hours charts

DAX - 18/09/2015

Yesterday's forecast is still intact. The market made a little trick during the FED decision, but no critical level was damaged by that. The context is still pretty much the same. The lower part of the range is almost reached. I expect at least and ending diagonal pattern at wave [c] position of a complex flat. The RSI on the 4 hour chart is about to hit the sustainable bearish zone, which could confirm the bearish bias. I still cannot rule out a retest of yesterday's high, but it has a really slight chance. So in my reading this market is bearish in short term, especially below the 10500 level resistance (need to pay attention at support levels of the bigger range though).

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 -h4 charts

DAX 17/09/2015

Just a quick drawing on what I think is more likely going to happen  if the support on the 4 hour chart will fall. I'm going to write some more comment on this scenario later on...

DAX (CFD) - m15 -  h1 -h4 charts

DAX 15/09/2015

The market is still ranging on smaller degree, but the 4 hours chart may show signs of a bearish opportunity though. The momentum failed to reach the sustainable bull zone and the RSI stopped at the top of the bearish support (and even get a little bit into a neutral zone white zone). Another important thing about this time frame is that the L/L and L/H series are converging with the RSI. 

A downside break out from the range shown on the 15 minutes and 1 hour chart would suggest that the bears on the 4 hours chart want to test the lower part of the bigger range. This would trigger at least a wave [c] of a really complex flat pattern. Due to the triangle shape, which was created last week, in this cases the wave [c] is either going to be an ending diagonal, or this small range shown on the 15 minutes chart is actually going to be a bearish (i)-(ii)-i-ii situation (instead of a bullish (i)-(ii)-i-ii series, which I wrote about yesterday). 

I can't really commit to either side on higher time frame until the market keeps ranging and only try to find smaller degree setups.

DAX (CFD) - m15 - h1 - h4 charts

Dax 14/09/2015

Update: 11:32
 Looking for higher prices against in a potential 1-2-i-ii situation. If break out will occur I will use trailing stop instead of the a TP. This could be very a juicy upside movement if the pattern will be confirmed by the PA.

DAX (CFD) - 15 minutes chart showing potential 1-2-i-ii situation.

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I think that the index is bullish above 10080. I post a picture of the context I made during the weekend. Full update in English will be posted later on.

DAX (CFD) 

The 10080 level hold and a higher low was created. Higher time frames are still bullish in my reading, except the momentum of the daily and the 4 hours (they are at the bearish resistance at the moment), but the momentum on the 4 hours chart has produced a converging H/H-H/L series. I still can't rule out that this is gonna be an even more complex flat, but as I mentioned in my previous posts this price action can be labeled as a complete LD+flat pattern. In this case the price must stay above the red line shown on the 1 hour chart and needs to close above the range soon. If the red line will fail to hold the price then I will start to think the market needs at least a bigger correction, at least a more complex flat where the wave [c] will be an ending diagonal. These are just some thoughts. The market has shown no conformation in either way so far.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart

DAX (CFD) - 4 hour chart

DAX - 10/09/2015

I nice impulse is most likely completed from yesterday's high. The gap was closed, so the alternate option of a complex flat for wave [b] or [ii] is alive. The structure can be labeled as a complete running flat pattern, but the market can still do some more tricks. My idea for today is to hit an ideal retrace level of the preceding drop. There is a bullish slingshot opportunity on the 5 minutes chart, which is not triggered yet, but even if it get triggered most likely it won't be strong enough to push the price to target zone even. So I wait for a pull back and then a reversal signal for a long trade especially above the red line shown on the 5 minutes chart. If the market will go below today's low then I will look for a short setup with the target zone of 10k or below. (Since I started to write the post the market excluded the bullish slingshot setup)

DAX (CFD) - 1 minute, 5 minutes and 15 minutes charts

DAX (CFD) - context of the drop and primary target zone for today

So this would be my short scenario. If the market goes below the red line then most likely a can anticipate a wave (c) of [b]/[ii] and a test of the lower area of the range.

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour chart with complex flat option

I have to notice that the momentums on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts are getting interesting. We can a series of higher highs and higher lows converging with the RSI, which opens up a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) interpretation. This is just a thought in the back of my mind...

DAX (CFD) - 1 hour and 4 hours chart with [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) option

DAX context - 09/09/2015

This August has brought very volatile market conditions. The sell off didn't surprise me as you can see in my previous post, I couldn't rule out a bigger drop (dax ld+flat). This flat can be drawn a little more complex, but I think it doesn't really matter. At that time the market was in an absolute 50-50 situation in my reading. After this the market first moved upward but failed to pierce through the critical level needed to trigger the continuation of an immediate long trend. 

I decided to update the context because the drop so far doesn't look like an impulse wave. I can't exclude a 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation though, but right now this drop looks corrective.

If you take a look at the monthly chart, you can see the drop stopped at multiple support zones. The 38.2 Fibonacci level, the upper line of the base channel and the previous wave (IV) zone was right there. We saw the first break below the trend line created by the RSI and the momentum came down to the bullish support zone. This movement is pretty much equal in points and time with the possible wave II (see boxes). So if the market wants another high or test of the high this is the place for it. Just a thought on what if the market takes out the low (and especially if it closes below that level on weekly of monthly chart). then I think a trend reversal is most likely and at least a bigger correction should develop with the target level of 8500 as the end of wave 3 of (A).

DAX (CFD) monthly chart

The weekly chart shows that this downside movement didn't reach the ideal Fibonacci extension level for a wave 3, thus suggesting that this is going to be either an A-B-C, or 1-2-[i]-[ii] situation. The only problem with this interpretation is the corrective channel, which was broken. In this case always have to watch out for a channel test.  This is just a warning sign so far that should make you think other possibilities as well. But I think this happens quite often after a leading diagonal followed by a flat correction. (Another thing to consider is that the monthly candle didn't close outside of the channel and a monthly line chart also didn't confirm a break of the channel yet.)

DAX (CFD) weekly chart

Since the local low the market created a range, which was pierced upward by today's opening. This tells me that at least a wave (c) of [ii] can be expected, but can't rule out even higher prices though, especially if today the market will create a runaway gap on the daily chart. The momentum on the daily charts shows signs of climax at low. If the gap will stay open, the market should reach at least the 9700 level this week, but in this case the market should ideally test the 11k as a significant Fibonacci and psychological level.

DAX (CFD) daily chart

I show you an alternate version on the 4 hours chart. Yesterday the market was at the top of the range. I could count a full flat correction, but the upside movement didn't yet confirm that. Although today the market tries to break out of the range this bull trap is still an option. The rest of the week will decide that I can rule this out or not. Today's price action will be crucial, because a runaway gap would a nice reference point for the bulls.

DAX (CFD)  4 hours chart

I also want show you a 5 minutes chart from yesterday. This is what I wanted to play out from the context of the 4 hours chart. I expected a pullback and a zig zag pattern to unfold to the zone shown on the chart after a possible leading diagonal. I wanted to shot the upward wave after a higher low, but I missed the entry, but Today's opening ruled out the LD shown on this chart, and the whole complex flat idea is questioned as well.

DAX (CFD) 5 minutes chart

Dax - 04/08/2015

Update: 14:00
I got stopped out at 11421.

Update: 13:05
I had a couple of tries on both way. First I tried to play a break out attempt. I realized 1,5R. but it looked like it is going to fail So I jumped to the short side.

I had a short from 11446. Tp at 11408,5. https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769756/dax30-pro-m5-admiral-markets-as The market reached my tp, but i got stopped out at 11424,5.

So I decided to  reenter on the short side again. I think lower prices might be ahead of us based on the 15 minutes chart.

Dax (CFD) 15 minutes chart

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This July was pretty hectic for me. I wasn't able to focus on trading.
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The dax is in an interesting situation. The higer time-frames are pretty much 50-50 right now. In my primary wave count I think a DZZ was completed and right now the index is testing the corrective channel. The preceding drop looks corrective, a sharp ZZ, right to higher channel line. My alternate count suggest at least a test of the lower channel line. This alternate version shows an ideal pattern for the price action. In this scenario, if the price action will pierce and test successfully the lower corrective channel line, I think a wave 3 will be on its way and we'll see more downside movement.

Either way this is gonna play out, based on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts, I think at least the 61.8 Fibonacchi level of the preceding drop is reachable.

I have a long position in DAX CFD opened at 11421. Sl is at break even. Trailing stop is on.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3769190/dax30-pro-m15-admiral-markets-as

Dax primary wave count on 4 hours chart

Dax alternate wave count on 4 hours chart

Trades - 01/07/2015

11:26

Reentered for a quick long scalp. RSI on m1-m5-m15 suggested at least on marginal high (at least a wave B). 2R in the pocket. Closed at 11220. We'll see how the rest of the day will play out, now I'm gonna sit on my hands and wait out. The price action looks like it's on a break out attempt, but this needs further confirmation.

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m1 charts

11:16
SL closed my position at 11145.

11:09
I have a long postion. Context will be updated later today. Trailing stop loss order is on

DAX (CFD): h1 - m15 - m5 charts

DAX - 05/19/2015

The index is on a break out attempt, but so far the upper line of the smaller channel is still a resistance. The momentum on the daily chart created a bullish cross which still needs to be confirmed by MA10/20 cross, but the downward channel is broken and today's gap could easily be a runaway gap. Even if this is part of a correction the 11900s level should be tested as 61.8 fibonacchi level is laying right around there. 11 o'clock (CET) ZEW data should determine the next move.

DAX daily chart - channels at crossroads.

DAX Context - 04/05/2015

I'm gonna go for a vacation this week. From next week I'm gonna start studying for my exams, so I'm not gonna follow the market during the day (thus I'm not gonna trade until I'm done). I'll try to update my context every once in a while though.

I think the market is likely bottomed and reached the end of a wave (4). The price action is likely making legs for an attack of the ATH again. This wave count is especially valid above the last week's low. The market reached and ideal level in fibonacchi extension (wave A and wave C)) wise and also hit the ideal fibonnachi retracement level on higher time frame (38.2). Primary targets are marked on the 4 hours chart with red lines.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX context - 30/04/2015

The market exceeded my target zone and reached the bottom of a correction channel (shown on the daily chart). The bigger picture is getting a bit shaky. I had to reconsider my wave count regarding the pattern (triangle wave 4 - see daily chart) reaching ATH. This is also made the Elliott channel modified. But even if this is correct, the lower line of the Elliott channel was pierced. So this is definitely a warning sign. Another concerning sign could be a bearish cross on the weekly RSI, but the week is still on, so I have to wait until next week for this.

Due to the rule of alternation I think the downward movement will continue today from the zone shown on the 4 hours chart. The small time frame candles are too big to pull the trigger on a setup and I'd have to take bigger risk then I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna wait a little more to pull the trigger on the setup.

DAX: h1 - h4 - daily charts

DAX and trades - 29/04/2015

17:04 (GMT+1)
Sl closed my short at 3650

16:40 (GMT+1)
The first wave of the drop didn't reach my target and I missed the exit on smaller time frame. Lowered my Sl to 3659.5. I plan to trail the MA20 line if the decline will continue.

EURO STOXX50: 1 hour chart

14:38 (GMT+1)
Trailing stop is on. I hope the channel will break right now.

EURO STOXX50: 4 hours chart

14:33 (GMT+1)
Sl lowered to 3712.

13:30 (GMT+1)
The DAX is starting to look bearish to me concerning near term price action. The only "immediate" bullish outlook is a flat wave [ii] pattern. But if the market break below to yesterday's low then this can be ruled out too. I expect a tricky range and a bigger flat wave pattern as wave B of (4). This is just a thought. Further confirmation is needed to deal with this context.

DAX: h1 -h4 - daily charts

I opened a short on EUSTX50. My primary target is around 3600s.

EUSTOXX50 - daily chart

dax - 28/04/2015

12:57 (GMT+1)
TP was hit. Now it's wait and see for me...So far the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart held the drop in a parallel channel.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

12:34 (GMT+1)

It looks like the price action couldn't form a decent impulsive wave. The minimum target was reached more like in a 3 wave pattern, although I cannot rule out the possibility that the index is just gathering some more strength in a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) pattern. The momentum on the 4 hours chart hit the bearish support zone and couldn't reach the bullish territory, while the RSI on the 1 hour is about the form a bearish cross. The channel shown on the 15 minutes chart must break to confirm at least a correction of yesterday's price action.

DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts

DAX - 27/04/2015

16:52
Rest of the long is closed át 12021.

14:50 (GMT+1)
Higher long is closed at 11984.5

14:43 (GMT+1)
The price action is on the break regarding the 1 and 4 hours chart. I think higher prices is still reachable (shown on 4 hours chart) even if the bottom wasn't an end of flat C wave.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h4 charts

12:26 (GMT+1)
Sl raised to 11798, then to 11805. Scaled out 1/2 at 11838.5. Trailing stop is on.

11:50 (GMT+1)

I'm paying close attention to a bullish opportunity. Different scenarios are still hanging in the air. No critical support was broken last week so I'll try to play bullish setups above that line. The channel on the 5 minutes chart is broken and I think the 1 hour chart shows a very chaotic leading diagonal and flat patterns. I think the higher channel line shown on the 1 hour chart is a reachable target zone for today. We'll see how this works out.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

trades - 24/04/2015

10:50 (GMT+1)
Scaled out 1/3 at 11876. Sl raised to 11800.

10:38 (GMT+1)

I think the index made a leading diagonal (shown on the 15 minutes chart). I expect higher prices for today and at least a hit of the 161.8 fibonacchi level and a backtest of the higher line of the channel (shown on the 1 hour chart). The market already hit the higher line of the channel. Now let's see if it will try to break out.

DAX: m15 - h1 - h4 charts

Trades - 23/04/2015

11:41 (GMT+1)

Position was closed by the SL. The market still moves in a downward channel, but so far the lower line provided support. If this is gonna continue then   the "immediate" bullish scenario I drew up a couple of days ago will be ruled out. It's a wait and see situation for me, because if the market will go below this week's low then at least 11500 should be reached and have to rethink the wave count (and may be the wave degree too.).

11:41 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11765.

11:24 (GMT+1)
Sl moved to 11740.


10:55 (GMT+1)

I'm back in front of my computer again. I didn't expect this deep retrace (if it will stay a retrace). I opened a long on a 5 minutes setup (base channel break out attempt). I think the index is gathering some strength. The hourly momentum is still on the edge of bullish support zone. We'll see how this is gonna work out.

DAX: m5 - m15 - 1 hour charts

9:17
Sl Closed position

9:10
Scaled out 1/3 át 11927.

9:01
Opened 3 long (cfd). Ep 11874, Sl 11860

DAX context and trades - 22/04/2015

20:27
Closed long at 11910.

18:57
Break even.

18:32 (GMT+1)
Last trade today.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

17:37 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. I got too agressive. The entry was too early. Now I wait and see.

17:32 (GMT+1)
Another long opened.

DAX: m5 - m15 - h1 charts

17:08 (GMT+1)
Closed position at 11891.

16:45 (GMT+1)
Opened a long.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

15:48 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Broke even.


15:02 (GMT+1)
The market moved 2R. Scaled out 1/3 at 11932.

14:58 (GMT+1)
Break even.

14:42 (GMT+1)
I hit a 15 minutes long signal.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

12:02 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out.

11:35 (GMT+1)
I opened 3 long (CFD). I expect at least a backtest today's high or even a little higher for today.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

The market filled the gap (see 4 hours chart). The momentum is forming a bullish cross on this time frame, but it needs to get confirmed by the MA10/20 to be valid. The RSI on the daily time frame might found support, and the weekly chart suggests that this market needs at least one more diverging high that would probable make the end of 3 of (3) on the monthly chart.

DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts

DAX - 20/04/2015

Unfortunately I'm down with illness. I'm not gonna trade until I'm 100% healthy again. I just can't focus. I'm only posting a picture of what I think is the most probable scenario in my reading. The first crucial sign would be breaking out of the Elliott channel drawn on the 1 hour chart. We'll see...

DAX: h1 - daily - weekly charts

DAX context and trades - 17/04/2015

Higher Time Frames:
Today's sell-off is still going on. So I decided to take a look at higher time frames. The weekly chart shows a nice Elliott channel and the price action hit the lower line. The momentum on the daily charts and above is still bullish, but the bears still have room especially considering this expanded flat correction pattern. Keep attention for signs of climax on the 4 hours chart and the unorthodox - often used today in Hungary :) - elliott channel (2 to 4 parallel to 1 to 3).

So the market once again reached and ideal level in many ways (correction channel, Fibonacci expansions and minimum Fibonacci retracement level), but this doesn't mean that the price action will stop right here. It is just an ideal place for it, we'll have to see and wait for reversal signals to trade swing long.

DAX: h4 - daily - weekly charts

14:42 (GMT+1)

I was really off with my last trade and  it got stopped out. Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch this nice drop. Too bad because I was really expecting at least a wave [v] of C. 

The intensity of this drop suggests that at least a flat C wave is going on. The sharp downside movement makes it difficult to determine the current wave degree. In my opinion the most likely scenario is that the extension of wave [iii] went on and almost reached 423,6 Fibonacchi ratio. The max level for a flat C on the daily chart is around 11400. The MA10 line on the weekly chart is getting really near, not to mention the 38.2 Fibonacchi retracement level. Above the aforementioned level I still expect at least one more backtest of the ATH, but for me this is neither the time and place for opening a short, nor trying to catch an end of flat C. Especially after reading the smaller degree wrong. My confidence in my trading decisions needs to be restored.

10:38 (GMT+1)
I opened 2 longs. I'm anticipating higher price as part of a correction. This is a little shaky though, because I'm not so sure that wave (b) is done. We'll see...

DAX: m15 - h1 - daily charts

This downside movement could be the end of a wave [iii]. This impulse wave is not a basic one, because the 3rd wave got extended. Thus the optimal level for a wave [iv] and the bottom line of the base channel got lower. The ideal retrace level for a wave [iv] right now is between 12000 and 12050, but due to the rule of alternation this correction is more likely to be a complex one (comparing to wave [ii]: flat, triangle or a combination pattern. So far there is no sign of reversal and because today is Friday I'm only planning to make quick scalps if I'll have the chance.

DAX: m15 - h4 - daily charts

Trades - 16/04/2015

17:48 (GMT+1)
Unfortunately the reenter. I had a short position that got stop out. My tp was 11960.. My rhythm was off today  I'm not gonna make more trades today. Instead I'll update the context.

12:29 (GMT+1)
Closed my shorts at 12050. I'm gonna reenter if the market retest the base channel (h1-h4).

12:00 (GMT+1)
Position got stopped out. Looks like the short side will prevail. Opened 2 shorts. Target zone: gap fill.

DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts

11:21 (GMT+1)
I bought 2 long. I'm planning to trade a ranging market and a test of the higher channel shown on the 1 hour chart. I put a trailing stop on the position.

DAX: m15-h1-h4 charts

DAX context -16/04/2015

Update: 17:52 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level. The gap is filled, base channel of this downside movement is broken and 161.8 Fibonnachi level is right around here. So if the market will produce an ideal basic impulse pattern then this level should provide temporary support. On the 4 hours chart the momentum is in a sustainable bearish zone, while the 1 hour is getting near to a point where signs of climax could appear. The 15 minutes chart shows a small divergence, but it's not enough yet for indicating a start of a wave [iv]. If the market finds support then ideally a retracement to the 38.2 Fibonacci level should be the end of wave [iv] which is right now located around the 12100s level. We'll see how the rest of the trading day will go on and hopefully tomorrow directions of the smaller time frames will be pretty much clear.

DAX: m15-h4-d1 charts

The market reached 2 of 3 goals I've expected. First the neckline, then the bigger channel. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel (shown on h4-d1 charts). If this channel breaks then most likely the market will go deeper then a gap fill and an intermediate triagnle or flat C wave could unfold from this situation. The momentum crosses of 4 hours and daily RSI are displaying different possible setups, so confirmation is needed before pulling a trigger in either way.

DAX: h1-h4-daily charts

DAX context - 14/04/2015

Yesterday was really busy for me and I just couldn't follow the market. Today will be pretty much the same for me, so I just update the context and what I think is important to look out.

DAX: h1-h4-d1 charts

The market reached the level I've expected yesterday, but not in the way as I thought it would. The momentum of the 1 hour chart has created a bearish hook and the setup was triggered and the minimum target is already reached. 

The channels shown on the 4 hours and daily charts should provide support. The daily chart is about to create a bullish cross on the RSI, but it is not valid yet. The rally stopped at an ideal level in many ways so patience is really the best thing to have regarding long term expectation. This is still an open question because the market is between different scenarios at the moment. There is no confirmation  yet for an intra-day or swing trade in either way. If the acceleration channel will break then I think the DAX will go for at least a test of the neckline, but more likely test of the bigger parallel channel and even possibly a gap fill.