Thursday, April 16, 2015

DAX context -16/04/2015

Update: 17:52 (GMT+1)
The market reached an ideal level. The gap is filled, base channel of this downside movement is broken and 161.8 Fibonnachi level is right around here. So if the market will produce an ideal basic impulse pattern then this level should provide temporary support. On the 4 hours chart the momentum is in a sustainable bearish zone, while the 1 hour is getting near to a point where signs of climax could appear. The 15 minutes chart shows a small divergence, but it's not enough yet for indicating a start of a wave [iv]. If the market finds support then ideally a retracement to the 38.2 Fibonacci level should be the end of wave [iv] which is right now located around the 12100s level. We'll see how the rest of the trading day will go on and hopefully tomorrow directions of the smaller time frames will be pretty much clear.
DAX: m15-h4-d1 charts
The market reached 2 of 3 goals I've expected. First the neckline, then the bigger channel. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel (shown on h4-d1 charts). If this channel breaks then most likely the market will go deeper then a gap fill and an intermediate triagnle or flat C wave could unfold from this situation. The momentum crosses of 4 hours and daily RSI are displaying different possible setups, so confirmation is needed before pulling a trigger in either way.
DAX: h1-h4-daily charts

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